Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Health Care in the United States, System Dynamics Applications to

  • Reference work entry
Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics

  • 2930 Accesses

Article Outline

Glossary

Definition of the Subject

Introduction

Four Applications

Future Directions

Bibliography

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 599.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Hardcover Book
USD 549.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

Abbreviations

Chronic illness :

A disease or adverse health state that persists over time and cannot in general be cured, although its symptoms may be treatable.

Stock:

An accumulation or state variable, such as the size of a population.

Flow:

A rate-of‐change variable affecting a stock, such as births flowing into a population or deaths flowing out.

Feedback loop:

A closed loop of causality that acts to counterbalance or reinforce prior change in a system state.

Bibliography

  1. American Diabetes Association and National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (2002) The prevention or delay of Type 2 diabetes. Diabetes Care 25:742–749

    Google Scholar 

  2. American Heart Association (2000) 2001 Heart and Stroke Statistical Update. AHA, Dallas

    Google Scholar 

  3. Anderson R (1994) Populations, infectious disease and immunity: A very nonlinear world. Phil Trans R Soc Lond B346:457–505

    Google Scholar 

  4. Bowman BA, Gregg EW, Williams DE, Engelgau MM, Jack Jr L (2003) Translating the science of primary, secondary, and tertiary prevention to inform the public health response to diabetes. J Public Health Mgmt Pract November (Suppl):S8–S14

    Google Scholar 

  5. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion (2007) Chronic Disease Overview. Available at http://www.cdc.gov/nccdphp/overview.htm

  6. Diabetes Prevention Program Research Group (2002) Reduction in the incidence of Type 2 diabetes with lifestyle intervention or metformin. New Engl J Med 346:393–403

    Google Scholar 

  7. Flegal KM, Carroll MD, Ogden CL, Johnson CL (2002) Prevalence and trends in obesity among US adults, 1999-2000. JAMA 288:1723–1727

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Forrester JW, Senge PM (1980) Tests for building confidence in system dynamics models. In: System Dynamics, TIMS Studies in the Management Sciences. North‐Holland, New York, pp 209–228

    Google Scholar 

  9. Forrester JW (1971) Counterintuitive behavior of social systems. Technol Rev 73:53–68

    Google Scholar 

  10. Forrester JW (1980) Information sources for modeling the national economy. J Amer Stat Assoc 75:555–574

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Forrester JW (1961) Industrial Dynamics. MIT Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  12. Forrester JW (1969) Urban Dynamics. MIT Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  13. Gunning-Schepers LJ (1989) The health benefits of prevention: A simulation approach. Health Policy Spec Issue 12:1–255

    Google Scholar 

  14. Halloran EM, Longini IM, Nizam A, Yang Y (2002) Containing bioterrorist smallpox. Science 298:1428–1432

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Heirich M (1999) Rethinking Health Care: Innovation and Change in America. Westview Press, Boulder

    Google Scholar 

  16. Hirsch GB (2004) Modeling the consequences of major incidents for health care systems. In: 22nd International System Dynamics Conference. System Dynamics Society, Oxford. Available from: http://www.systemdynamics.org/publications.htm

  17. Hirsch G, Homer J (2004) Integrating chronic illness management, improved access to care, and idealized clinical practice design in health care organizations: A systems thinking approach. In: International Conference on Systems Thinking in Management. AFEI/University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia. Available from: http://www.afei.org/documents/CDRomOrderForm.pdf

  18. Hirsch G, Homer J (2004) Modeling the dynamics of health care services for improved chronic illness management. In: 22nd International System Dynamics Conference. System Dynamics Society, Oxford. Available from: http://www.systemdynamics.org/publications.htm

  19. Hirsch GB, Immediato CS (1999) Microworlds and generic structures as resources for integrating care and improving health. Syst Dyn Rev 15:315–330

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Hirsch GB, Killingsworth WR (1975) A new framework for projecting dental manpower requirements. Inquiry 12:126–142

    Google Scholar 

  21. Hirsch G, Miller S (1974) Evaluating HMO policies with a computer simulation model. Med Care 12:668–681

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Hoard M, Homer J, Manley W, Furbee P, Haque A, Helmkamp J (2005) Systems modeling in support of evidence‐based disaster planning for rural areas. Int J Hyg Environ Health 208:117–125

    Google Scholar 

  23. Homer J, Hirsch G, Milstein B (2007) Chronic illness in a complex health economy: The perils and promises of downstream and upstream reforms. Syst Dyn Rev 23(2–3):313–334

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Homer J, Hirsch G, Minniti M, Pierson M (2004) Models for collaboration: How system dynamics helped a community organize cost‐effective care for chronic illness. Syst Dyn Rev 20:199–222

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Homer J, Milstein B, Dietz W, Buchner D, Majestic E (2006) Obesity population dynamics: Exploring historical growth and plausible futures in the U.S. In: 24th International System Dynamics Conference. System Dynamics Society, Nijmegen. Available from: http://www.systemdynamics.org/publications.htm

  26. Homer J, Milstein B (2002) Communities with multiple afflictions: A system dynamics approach to the study and prevention of syndemics. In: 20th International System Dynamics Conference. System Dynamics Society, Palermo. Available from: http://www.systemdynamics.org/publications.htm

  27. Homer J, Milstein B (2004) Optimal decision making in a dynamic model of community health. In: 37th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences. IEEE, Waikoloa. Available from: http://csdl.computer.org/comp/proceedings/hicss/2004/2056/03/2056toc.htm

  28. Homer J, Ritchie‐Dunham J, Rabbino H, Puente LM, Jorgensen J, Hendricks K (2000) Toward a dynamic theory of antibiotic resistance. Syst Dyn Rev 16:287–319

    Google Scholar 

  29. Homer JB, St. Clair CL (1991) A model of HIV transmission through needle sharing. Interfaces 21:26–49

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Homer JB (1993) A system dynamics model of national cocaine prevalence. Syst Dyn Rev 9:49–78

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Honeycutt AA, Boyle JP, Broglio KR et al (2003) A dynamic Markov model for forecasting diabetes prevalence in the United States through 2050. Health Care Mgmt Sci 6:155–164

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Institute of Medicine (Board on Health Sciences Policy) (2003) Unequal Treatment: Confronting Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Health Care. National Academies Press, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  33. Institute of Medicine (Committee on Quality of Health Care in America) (2001) Crossing the Quality Chasm: A New Health System for the 21st Century. National Academies Press, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  34. Jones AP, Homer JB, Murphy DL, Essien JDK, Milstein B, Seville DA (2006) Understanding diabetes population dynamics through simulation modeling and experimentation. Am J Public Health 96(3):488–494

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Kaplan EH, Craft DL, Wein LM (2002) Emergency response to a smallpox attack: The case for mass vaccination. In: Proceedings of the Natl Acad of Sciences 99:10935–10940

    Google Scholar 

  36. Lee P, Paxman D (1997) Reinventing public health. Annu Rev Public Health 18:1–35

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Levin G, Roberts EB, Hirsch GB (1975) The Persistent Poppy. Ballinger, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  38. Levin G, Roberts EB, Hirsch GB, Kligler DS, Wilder JF, Roberts N (1976) The Dynamics of Human Service Delivery. Ballinger, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  39. Lindblom E (2006) State cigarette excise tax rates and rankings. Campaign for Tobacco‐Free Kids, Washington, DC. Available from: http://www.tobaccofreekids.org/research/factsheets/pdf/0097.pdf

  40. Luginbuhl W, Forsyth B, Hirsch G, Goodman M (1981) Prevention and rehabilitation as a means of cost‐containment: The example of myocardial infarction. J Public Health Policy 2:1103–1115

    Google Scholar 

  41. Manley W, Homer J et al (2005) A dynamic model to support surge capacity planning in a rural hospital. In: 23rd International System Dynamics Conference, Boston. Available from: http://www.systemdynamics.org/publications.htm

  42. Marshall T (2000) Exploring a fiscal food policy: The case of diet and ischaemic heart disease. BMJ 320:301–305

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Milstein B, Jones A, Homer J, Murphy D, Essien J, Seville D (2007) Charting Plausible Futures for Diabetes Prevalence in the United States: A Role for System Dynamics Simulation Modeling. Preventing Chronic Disease, 4(3), July 2007. Available at: http://www .cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2007/jul/06_0070.htm

  44. Naidoo B, Thorogood M, McPherson K, Gunning-Schepers LJ (1997) Modeling the effects of increased physical activity on coronary heart disease in England and Wales. J Epidemiol Community Health 51:144–150

    Article  Google Scholar 

  45. National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (2004) National Diabetes Statistics. Available from: http://diabetes.niddk.nih.gov/dm/pubs/statistics/index.htm

  46. National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (2004) Statistics Related to Overweight and Obesity. Available from: http://www.niddk.nih.gov/health/nutrit/pubs/statobes.htm#preval

  47. O'Connell JB, Bristow MR (1993) Economic impact of heart failure in the United States: Time for a different approach. J Heart Lung Transplant 13(suppl):S107-S112

    Google Scholar 

  48. O'Donoghue T, Rabin M (2006) Optimal sin taxes. J Public Econ 90:1825–1849

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. Ratanawijitrasin S (1993) The dynamics of health care finance: A feedback view of system behavior. Ph.D. Dissertation, SUNY Albany

    Google Scholar 

  50. Roberts EB, Homer J, Kasabian A, Varrell M (1982) A systems view of the smoking problem: Perspective and limitations of the role of science in decision‐making. Int J Biomed Comput 13:69–86

    Article  Google Scholar 

  51. Schlessinger L, Eddy DM (2002) Archimedes: A new model for simulating health care systems—the mathematical formulation. J Biomed Inform 35:37–50

    Article  Google Scholar 

  52. Schorr LB (1997) Common Purpose: Strengthening Families and Neighborhoods to Rebuild America. Doubleday/Anchor Books, New York

    Google Scholar 

  53. Singer M, Clair S (2003) Syndemics and public health: Reconceptualizing disease in bio‐social context. Med Anthropol Q 17:423–441

    Article  Google Scholar 

  54. Singer M (1996) A dose of drugs, a touch of violence, a case of AIDS: Conceptualizing the SAVA syndemic. Free Inquiry 24:99–110

    Google Scholar 

  55. Sterman JD (1988) A skeptic's guide to computer models. In: Grant L (ed) Foresight and National Decisions. University Press of America, Lanham, pp 133–169

    Google Scholar 

  56. Sterman JD (2000) Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin/McGraw‐Hill, Boston

    Google Scholar 

  57. Tompson KM, Tebbens RJD (2007) Eradication versus control for poliomyelitis: An economic analysis. Lancet 369:1363–1371. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(07)60532-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  58. Tengs TO, Osgood ND, Chen LL (2001) The cost‐effectiveness of intensive national school‐based anti‐tobacco education: Results from the tobacco policy model. Prev Med 33:558–70

    Article  Google Scholar 

  59. U.K. Prospective Diabetes Study Group (1998) Tight blood pressure control and risk of macrovascular and microvascular complications in Type 2 diabetes. The Lancet 352:703–713

    Article  Google Scholar 

  60. Vennix JAM (1996) Group Model‐building: Facilitating Team Learning Using System Dynamics. Wiley, Chichester

    Google Scholar 

  61. Wagner EH, Sandhu N, Newton KM et al (2001) Effect of improved glycemic control on health care costs and utilization. JAMA 285(2):182–189

    Article  Google Scholar 

  62. Wallace R (1988) A synergism of plagues. Environ Res 47:1–33

    Article  Google Scholar 

  63. Wolfson MC (1994) POHEM: A framework for understanding and modeling the health of human populations. World Health Stat Q 47:157–176

    Google Scholar 

  64. Zack MM, Moriarty DG, Stroup DF, Ford ES, Mokdad AH (2004) Worsening trends in adult health‐related quality of life and self-rated health–United States, 1993-2001. Public Health Rep 119:493–505

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Independent Consultant, Wayland, USA

    Gary Hirsch

  2. Independent Consultant, Voorhees, USA

    Jack Homer

Authors
  1. Gary Hirsch
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jack Homer
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. RAMTECH LIMITED, 122 Escalle Lane, Larkspur, CA, 94939, USA

    Robert A. Meyers Ph. D. (Editor-in-Chief) (Editor-in-Chief)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2009 Springer-Verlag

About this entry

Cite this entry

Hirsch, G., Homer, J. (2009). Health Care in the United States, System Dynamics Applications to. In: Meyers, R. (eds) Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-7701-4_29

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-7701-4_29

  • Publisher Name: Springer, New York, NY

  • Print ISBN: 978-1-4419-7700-7

  • Online ISBN: 978-1-4419-7701-4

  • eBook Packages: Business and Economics

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation