Advertisement

Economics and Markets

  • Alan K. Graham
Chapter

Abstarct

Economic matters are often entangled with interventions. Aid agencies need to understand where they can have the highest leverage, and where aid may cause harmful economic distortions. Humanitarian interventions in crises will be more effective if the economic and social root causes of the crisis are addressed as well. The root causes of insurgencies often include economic issues, particularly economic discrimination. Planners for military operations in a country need to know the economic side effects of military activities, including the effects of withdrawal. Government agencies trying to bring developed-nation investors into a developing country must understand, along with the potential investors, what the economic prospects of the economy are, and how safe an investment is (or is not). Economic modeling and analysis can assist in each of these cases.

Keywords

Economic Model Fiscal Policy Behavior Mode Shadow Economy Unemployed Worker 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

References

  1. Alfeld, L., & Graham, A. (1976). Introduction to Urban Dynamics. Waltham, Mass.: Pegasus Communications.Google Scholar
  2. Bernanke, B., & Blinder, A. (1988). Credit, money and aggregate demand. American Economic Review, 78(2), 435–439.Google Scholar
  3. Billari, F., et al. (2006). Agent-Based Computational Modeling: Applications in Demography, Social, Economic and Environmental Sciences (Contributions to Economics). Heidelberg, Germany: Physica-Verlag.Google Scholar
  4. Bueno de Mesquita, B., Morrow, J., Siverson, R., & Smith, A. (2002). Political institutions, policy choice and the survival of leaders. British Journal of Political Science, 32, 559–590.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Bueno de Mesquita, B., Smith, A., Siverson, R., & Morrow, J. (2004). The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
  6. Burgess, G., Chong, S., Summers, G., Strobl, M., Graham, A., Horne, S., Torre, C., & Kreider, B. (2009). PA&E Global Economics Study Final Report: A reconnaissance of economic issues impacting DoD. Washington, DC: Department of Defense Directorate for Program Analysis and Evaluation.Google Scholar
  7. Caldwell, J. (1976). Toward a restatement of demographic transition theory. Population and Development Review, 2, 321–366.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Caldwell, J., Caldwell, B., Caldwell, P., McDonald, P., & Schindlmayr, T. (2006). Demographic Transition Theory. Dordrecht, the Netherlands: Springer Science & Business Media.Google Scholar
  9. Curry, J. (2000). A Short Course in International Economics. Novato, CA: World Trade Press.Google Scholar
  10. DARPA. (2006). Towards a system dynamics model of insurgency in Fallujah: Integrating knowledge to understand underlying drivers and identify high leverage intervention points, Final Deliverable for Contract HR0011-06-C-0128. For Official Use Only.Google Scholar
  11. Das, D. (2009). The evolution of renminbi yuan and the protracted debate on its undervaluation: An integrated review. Journal of Asian Economics, 20(50), 570–579, September 2009. Order article at http://www.sciencedirect.com/ Google Scholar
  12. Dixit, A., & Skeathmore, S. (2004). Games of Strategy, 2nd ed. New York, NY: WW Norton.Google Scholar
  13. Eatwell, J., Milgate, M., & Newman, P., (Eds.) (1987). The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics. London, UK and New York, NY: Macmillan and Stockton.Google Scholar
  14. Eckstein, O. (1983). The DRI Model of the US Economy. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
  15. ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute). (2009). New York and London. Retrieved from http://www.businesscycle.com/.
  16. Fair, R. (2004). Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/
  17. Foley, D., & Sidrauski, M. (1971). Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Growing Economy. New York: Macmillan.Google Scholar
  18. Forrester, J. (1961) Industrial Dynamics. Waltham, Mass.: Pegasus Communications.Google Scholar
  19. Forrester, J. (1971). Counterintuitive behavior of social systems. Technology Review, 73(3), 52–68. Retrieved from http://sdg.scripts.mit.edu/docs/D-4468-2.Counterintuitive.pdf
  20. Forrester, N. (1982). A dynamic synthesis of basic macroeconomic theory: Implications for stabilization policy analysis (PhD Thesis). Cambridge, MA: Alfred P. Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.Google Scholar
  21. Forrester, J. (1989). The System Dynamics National Model: Macrobehavior from Microstructure. In Computer-Based Management of Complex Systems: International System Dynamics Conference. Springer, Berlin.Google Scholar
  22. Gandolfo, G. (2002). International Finance and Open-Economy Macro-economics. New York, NY: Springer.Google Scholar
  23. Godley, W., & Lavoie, M. (2006). Monetary Economics: An Integrated Approach to Credit, Money, Income, Production and Wealth. London: Palgrave-Macmillan.Google Scholar
  24. Graham, A. (1982). The long wave. Journal of Business Forecasting, 1(5), 69–74.Google Scholar
  25. Graham, A. (2009a). Four grand challenges for system dynamics. In Proceedings of the 2009 International System Dynamics Conference. Albuquerque, NM.Google Scholar
  26. Graham, A. (2009b). Methodological changes needed to meet the world’s Grand Challenges. In Proceedings of the 2009 International System Dynamics Conference. Albuquerque, NM.Google Scholar
  27. Graham, A., & Ariza, C. (2003). Dynamic, strategic and hard questions: using optimization to answer a marketing resource allocation question. System Dynamics Review, 19(1), 27–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Graham, A., & Godfrey, J. (2003). Achieving Win-Win in a Regulatory Dispute: Managing 3G Competition. In Proceedings of the 2003 International System Dynamics Conference. Albany, NY: System Dynamics Society. Retrieved from http://www.systemdynamics.org/.
  29. Graham, A., Moore, J., & Choi, C. (2002). How robust are conclusions from a complex calibrated model, really? A project management model benchmark using fit-constrained Monte Carlo analysis. Proceedings of the 2002 International System Dynamics Conference, Palermo, Italy.Google Scholar
  30. Graham, A., & Senge, P. (1980). A long-wave hypothesis of innovation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 17, 125–142.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Graham, A., Mayo, D., & Pickels, W. (2008a). OSD/PA&E Economic Analysis Study: Conceptual Framework. Cambridge, MA: PA Consulting Group.Google Scholar
  32. Graham, A., Mayo, D., & Pickels, W. (2008b). OSD/PA&E economic analysis study: Conceptual framework and discussion items. Presentation for “Global Economics and Finance Game Design Planning Seminar” 2008. Cambridge, MA: PA Consulting Group.Google Scholar
  33. J8/WAD. (2007). Analysis of Network Enabled Stabilization & Reconstruction Operations. Final deliverable for contract: W74V8H-04-D-0051, December 7, 2007.Google Scholar
  34. Koo, R. (2008). The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan’s Great Recession. New York, NY: Wiley.Google Scholar
  35. Kott, A., & Corpac, P. (2007). Technology to assist leaders in planning and executing campaigns in complex operational environments: conflict modeling, planning and outcomes experimentation program (COMPOEX). In Proceedings of the 12th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium. Newport, RI. Retrived from http://www.dodccrp.org/events/12th_ICCRTS/CD/html/presentations/232.pdf
  36. Krugman, P. (1999). Balance sheets, the transfer problem, and financial crises” in Isard, P., Razin A. & Rose, A. (eds). International Finance and Financial Crises: Essays in honor of Robert P. Flood, Jr. Norwell, Mass.: Kluwer.Google Scholar
  37. Krugman, P., & Obstfeld, M. (2008). International Economics: Theory and Policy (8th ed.). Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
  38. Krugman, P. (2009). The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008. New York, NY: W. W. Norton & Co.Google Scholar
  39. Kubler, F. (2008). Computation of general equilibria (new developments). In Durlauf, S. N., & Blume, L. E., (Eds.), The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. Second Edition. New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
  40. Low, G. (1977). Financial market dynamics: an analysis of credit extension and savings allocation (PhD Thesis). Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management.Google Scholar
  41. Lyneis, J. (1999). System dynamics for strategy: a phased approach. System Dynamics Review, 15(1), 37–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Lyneis, J. (2000). System dynamics for market forecasting and structural analysis. System Dynamics Review, 16(1), 3–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Mass, N. (1975). Economic Cycles: An Analysis of Underlying Causes. Waltham, MA: Pegasus Communications.Google Scholar
  44. Mayo, D., Callaghan, M., & Dalton, W. (2001). Aiming for restructuring success at London Underground. System Dynamics Review, 17(3), 261–289.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Modigliani, F., & Brumberg, R. (1954). Utility analysis and the consumption function: an interpretation of cross-section data. In Kurihara, K. K., (Ed.), Post-Keynesian Economics. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press.Google Scholar
  46. NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research). (2009). Cambridge, MA. Retrived from http://www.nber.org/.
  47. OUSD Policy Forces Transformation and Resources. (2007). System Dynamics Modeling of Stability Operations. Final Deliverables for contract: W74V8H-04-D-0051.Google Scholar
  48. Rahmandad, H., & Sterman, J. (2004). Heterogeneity and Network Structure in the Dynamics of Diffusion: Comparing Agent-Based and Differential Equation Models. Sloan School of Management Working Paper Series ESD-WP-2004-5. Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology.Google Scholar
  49. Romer, P. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), S71–S102. Retrived from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2937632 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Runge, D. (1976). Labor-market dynamics: an analysis of mobility and wages (PhD Thesis). Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management.Google Scholar
  51. Samuelson, P., & Nordhaus, W. (2004). Economics (18th ed.). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
  52. Schweppe, F. (1973). Uncertain Dynamic Systems. Engelwood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
  53. Sen, A. (1985). Commodities and Capabilities. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  54. Senge, P. (1978). The system dynamics national model investment function: a comparison to the neoclassical investment function (PhD Thesis). Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management.Google Scholar
  55. Senge, P. (1990). The Fifth Discipline. New York, NY: Doubleday.Google Scholar
  56. Shibuya, H. (2001). Economic takeoff and capital flight”. ESRI Discussion Paper Series no. 8. Tokyo: Economic and Social Research Institute Cabinet Office, Government of Japan. Available online at http://www.esri.go.jp/en/archive/e_dis/abstract/e_dis008-e.html
  57. Solow, R. (1956). A Contribution to the theory of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Solow, R. (1957). Technical change and the aggregate production function. Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(3), 312–320.MathSciNetCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Sterman, J. D. (1982). The energy transition and the economy: A system dynamics approach (PhD Thesis). Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management.Google Scholar
  60. Sterman, J. D. (1986). The economic long wave: theory and evidence. System Dynamics Review 2, 87–125.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Sterman, J. D. (1988). A Skeptic’s guide to computer models. In Grant, L., (Ed.), Foresight and National Decisions. Pages 133–169. Lanham, MD: University Press of America.Google Scholar
  62. Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill/Irwin.Google Scholar
  63. Stephens, C., Graham, A., & Lyneis, J. (2005). System dynamics modeling in the legal arena: meeting the challenges of expert witness admissibility. System Dynamics Review. 21(2): 95–122.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Taylor, M. (1991). The hyperinflation model of money demand revisited. Journal of money, Credit and Banking, 23(3), 327–51. Available through JSTOR at http://ideas.repec.org/a/mcb/jmoncb/v23y1991i3p327-51.html
  65. Theil, H. (1971). Principles of Econometrics. New York: John Wiley & Sons.MATHGoogle Scholar
  66. Transport for London. (2009). Retrived from http://www.tfl.gov.uk/corporate/modesoftransport/1548.aspx.
  67. UN Development Programme. (2009). Human Development Report and Human Development Indices. Retrived from http://hdr.undp.org/en/humandev/hdi/.
  68. University of Maryland. Inforum (2009). Retrieved from http://inforumweb.umd.edu/.
  69. Von Peter, G. (2005). Debt-deflation: concepts and a stylized model. BIS Working Papers, 176. Basel, Switzerland: Bank for International Settlements.Google Scholar
  70. Williams, J. (2007). The Complete Strategist: Being a Primer on the Theory of Games of Strategy. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer US 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridgeUSA

Personalised recommendations