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Introduction: Judgment and Computation

  • Alexander Kott
  • Gary Citrenbaum
  • G. Jiyun Kim
Chapter

Abstarct

Regardless of political views, the consensus of observers is that international interventions in Afghanistan (beginning in 2001) and Iraq (beginning in 2003) could have been planned better. In particular, objective observers suggest that the undesired effects of the plans could have been anticipated more accurately, and that, in turn, many of the resultant difficulties and tragedies could have been avoided. However, is this true? Do there exist rigorous and practical techniques for anticipating the effects of complex interventions, and for planning in accordance with such anticipations? The last few years have, in fact, seen the emergence of quantitative, computational tools and techniques that attempt to answer this question. Inspired by such efforts, this book aims to offer the reader a broad and practical introduction to computational approaches for anticipating the effects of interventions.

Keywords

Expert Judgment Force Unit Unanticipated Effect Human Player International Intervention 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Springer US 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Army Research LaboratoryAdelphiUSA

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