Mathematical Modelling of the Epidemiology of Tuberculosis

  • Peter J. White
  • Geoff P. Garnett
Part of the Advances in Experimental Medicine and Biology book series (AEMB, volume 673)


Despite the infectious agent that causes tuberculosis having been discovered in 1882, many aspects of the natural history and transmission dynamics of TB are still not fully understood. This is reflected in differences in the structures of mathematical models of TB, which in turn produce differences in the predicted impacts of interventions. Gaining a greater understanding of TB transmission dynamics requires further empirical laboratory and field work, mathematical modelling and interaction between them. Modelling can be used to quantify uncertainty due to different gaps in our knowledge to help identify research priorities. Fortunately, the present moment is an exciting time for TB epidemiology, with rapid progress being made in applying new mathematical modelling techniques, new tools for TB diagnosis and genetic analysis and a growing interest in developing more-effective public-health interventions.


Latent Infection Tuberculosis Control Isoniazid Preventive Therapy Bull World Health Organ Theor Popul Biol 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. 1.
    World Health Organization. Global tuberculosis control: surveillance, planning, financing. Geneva, 2006: WHO/HTM/TB/2006.362.Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    Nunn P, Williams B, Floyd K et al. Tuberculosis control in the era of HIV. Nat Rev Immunol 2005; 5(10): 819–826.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. 3.
    Corbett EL, Marston B, Churchyard GJ et al. Tuberculosis in sub-Saharan Africa: opportunities, challenges and change in the era of antiretroviral treatment. Lancet 2006; 367:926–937.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. 4.
    Maartens G, Wilkinson RJ. Tuberculosis. Lancet 2007; 370:2030–2043.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. 5.
    Brudney K, Dobkin J. Resurgent tuberculosis in New York City: human immunodeficiency virus, homelessness and the decline of tuberculosis control programs. Am Rev Respir Dis 1991; 144:745–9.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  6. 6.
    Frieden TR, Fujiwara PI, Washko RM et al. Tuberculosis in New York City—turning the tide. N Engl J Med 1995; 333:229–33.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. 7.
    Health Protection Agency. Tuberculosis in the UK: Annual report on tuberculosis surveillance and control in the UK 2007. London: Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, 2007.Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    Escombe AR, Oeser CC, Gilman RH et al. Natural ventilation for the prevention of airborne contagion. PLoS Med 2007; 4(2):309–317.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. 9.
    Lillebaek T, Dirksen A, Baess I et al. Molecular evidence of endogenous reactivation of Mycobacterium tuberculosis after 33 years of latent infection. J Infect Dis 2002; 185(3):401–404.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. 10.
    Lillebaek T, Dirksen A, Vynnycky E et al. Stability of DNA patterns and evidence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis reactivation occurring decades after the initial infection. J Infect Dis 2003; 188(7):1032–1039.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. 11.
    Van Rie A, Warren R, Richardson M et al. Exogenous reinfection as a cause of recurrent tuberculosis after curative treatment. N Engl J Med 1999; 341(16):1174–1179.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. 12.
    Feja K, Saiman L. Tuberculosis in children. Clin Chest Med 2005; 26(2):295–312.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. 13.
    Lalvani, A. Diagnosing tuberculosis infection in the 21st century—New tools to tackle an old enemy. Chest 2007; 131(6):1898–1906.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. 14.
    Onyebujoh P, Rodriguez W, Mwaba P. Priorities in tuberculosis research. Lancet 2006; 367:940–942.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. 15.
    Andersen P. Tuberculosis vaccines—an update. Nat Rev Microbiol 2007; 5(7):484–487.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. 16.
    Ly LH, McMurray DN. Tuberculosis: vaccines in the pipeline. Expert Rev Vaccines 2008; 7(5):635–650.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. 17.
    Moore DAJ, Evans CAW, Gilman RH et al. Microscopic-observation drug-susceptibility assay for the diagnosis of TB. N Engl J Med 2006; 355(15):1539–1550.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. 18.
    Moore DAJ. Future prospects for the MODS assay in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis diagnosis. Future Microbiol 2007; 2(2):97–101.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. 19.
    Soysal A, Millington KA, Bakir M et al. Effect of BCG vaccination on risk of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in children with household tuberculosis contact: a prospective community-based study. Lancet 2005; 366(9495):1443–1451.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. 20.
    Waaler HT, Gese A, Anderson S. The use of mathematical models in the study of the epidemiology of tuberculosis. Am J Pub Health 1962; 52:1002–1013.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. 21.
    Waaler HT, Piot MA. The use of an epidemiological model for estimating the effectiveness of tuberculosis control measures: Sensitivity of the effectiveness of tuberculosis control measures to the coverage of the population. Bull World Health Organ 1969; 41:75–93.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  22. 22.
    Waaler HT, Piot MA. Use of an epidemiological model for estimating the effectiveness of tuberculosis control measures: Sensitivity of the effectiveness of tuberculosis control measures to the social time preference. Bull World Health Organ 1970; 43:1–16.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  23. 23.
    Brogger S. Systems analysis in tuberculosis control: a model. Am Rev Respir Dis 1967; 95:419–434.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  24. 24.
    Ferebee SH. An epidemiological model of tuberculosis in the United States. Bull Natl Tuberc Respir Dis Assoc 1967; 4–7.Google Scholar
  25. 25.
    Ferebee S. Controlled chemoprophylaxis trials in tuberculosis a general review. Adv Tuberc Res 1970; 17:28–106.Google Scholar
  26. 26.
    ReVelle CS. The economics allocation of tuberculosis control activities in developing nations. Ph.D. Thesis, 1967. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY.Google Scholar
  27. 27.
    ReVelle CS, Lynn WR, Feldmann F. Mathematical models for the economic allocation of tuberculosis control activities in developing nations. Am Rev Respir Dis 1967; 96:893–909.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  28. 28.
    Revelle C, Feldmann F, Lynn W. An optimization model of tuberculosis epidemiology. Manage Sci 1969; 16:B190–B211.Google Scholar
  29. 29.
    Azuma Y. Simple simulation-model of tuberculosis epidemiology for use without large-scale computers. Bull World Health Organ 1975; 52(3):313–322.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  30. 30.
    Murray M. Determinants of cluster distribution in the molecular epidemiology of tuberculosis. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2002; 99(3):1538–1543.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. 31.
    Murray M. Sampling bias in the molecular epidemiology of tuberculosis. Emerg Infect Dis 2002; 8(4):363–369.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. 32.
    Hughes GR, Currie CSM, Corbett EL. Modeling tuberculosis in areas of high HIV prevalence. Proceedings of the 2006 Winter Simulation Conference, Vols 1–5. New York, IEEE: 459–465.Google Scholar
  33. 33.
    Cohen T, Colijn C, Finklea B et al. Exogenous re-infection and the dynamics of tuberculosis epidemics: local effects in a network model of transmission. J R Soc Interface 2007; 523–531.Google Scholar
  34. 34.
    Castillo-Chavez C, Feng ZL. To treat or not to treat: The case of tuberculosis. J Math Biol 1997; 35(6):629–656.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. 35.
    Jia ZW, Tang GY, Jin Z et al. Modeling the impact of immigration on the epidemiology of tuberculosis. Theor Popul Biol 2008; 73(3):437–448.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. 36.
    Garcia AJ, Maccario J, Richardson S. Modelling the annual risk of tuberculosis infection. Int J Epidemiol 1997; 26(1):190–203.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. 37.
    Blower SM, McLean AR, Porco TC et al. The intrinsic transmission dynamics of tuberculosis epidemics. Nat Med 1995; 1(8):815–821.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. 38.
    Blower SM, Small PM, Hopwell PC. Control strategies for tuberculosis epidemics: new models for old problems. Science 1996; 273:497–500.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. 39.
    Blower SM, Gerberding JL. Understanding, predicting and controlling the emergence of drug-resistant tuberculosis: a theoretical framework. J Mol Med 1998; 76(9):624–636.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. 40.
    Dye C, Garnett GP, Sleeman A et al. Prospects for worldwide tuberculosis control under the WHO DOTS strategy. Lancet 1998; 352(9144):1886–1891.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. 41.
    Porco TC, Blower SM. Quantifying the intrinsic transmission dynamics of tuberculosis. Theor Popul Biol 1998; 54(2):117–132.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. 42.
    Lietman T, Blower SM. Potential impact of tuberculosis vaccines as epidemic control agents. Clin Infect Dis 2000; 30:S316–S322.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. 43.
    Murphy BM, Singer BH, Anderson S et al. Comparing epidemic tuberculosis in demographically distinct heterogeneous populations. Math Biosci 2002; 180:161–185.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. 44.
    Murphy BM, Singer BH, Kirschner D. On treatment of tuberculosis in heterogeneous populations. J Theor Biol 2003; 223(4):391–404.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. 45.
    Currie CSM, Williams BG, Cheng RCH et al. Tuberculosis epidemics driven by HIV: is prevention better than cure? AIDS 2003; 17(17):2501–2508.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. 46.
    Blower SM, Chou T. Modeling the emergence of the ‘hot zones’: tuberculosis and the amplification dynamics of drug resistance. Nat Med 2004; 10(10):1111–1116.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. 47.
    Gomes MGM, Franco AO, Gomes MC et al. The reinfection threshold promotes variability in tuberculosis epidemiology and vaccine efficacy. Proc R Soc Lond Ser B-Biol Sci 2004; 271(1539):617–623.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. 48.
    Ziv E, Daley CL, Blower SM. Potential public health impact of new tuberculosis vaccines. Emerg Infect Dis 2004; 10(9):1529–1535.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  49. 49.
    Dowdy DW, Chaisson RE, Moulton LH et al. The potential impact of enhanced diagnostic techniques for tuberculosis driven by HIV: a mathematical model. AIDS 2006; 20(5):751–762.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. 50.
    Resch SC, Salomon JA, Murray M et al. Cost-effectiveness of treating multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. PLoS Med 2006; 3(7):1048–1057.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. 51.
    Rodrigues P, Gomes MGM, Rebelo C. Drug resistance in tuberculosis—a reinfection model. Theor Popul Biol 2007; 71(2):196–212.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. 52.
    Bhunu CP, Garira W, Mukandavire Z et al. Tuberculosis transmission model with chemoprophylaxis and treatment. Bull Math Biol 2008; 70(4):1163–1191.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. 53.
    West RW, Thompson JR. Modeling the impact of HIV on the spread of tuberculosis in the United States. Math Biosci 1997; 143(1):35–60.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. 54.
    Murray CJL, Salomon JA. Modeling the impact of global tuberculosis control strategies. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 1998; 95(23):13881–13886.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. 55.
    Debanne SM, Bielefeld RA, Cauthen GM et al. Multivariate Markovian modeling of tuberculosis: Forecast for the United States. Emerg Infect Dis 2000; 6(2):148–157.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. 56.
    Dye C, Espinal MA. Will tuberculosis become resistant to all antibiotics? Proc R Soc Lond Ser B-Biol Sci 2001; 268(1462):45–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. 57.
    Cohen T, Murray M. Modeling epidemics of multidrug-resistant M tuberculosis of heterogeneous fitness. Nat Med 2004; 10(10):1117–1121.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. 58.
    Salomon JA, Lloyd-Smith JO, Getz WM et al. Prospects for advancing tuberculosis control efforts through novel therapies. PLoS Med 2006; 3(8):1302–1309.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. 59.
    Basu S, Andrews JR, Poolman EM et al. Prevention of nosocomial transmission of extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis in rural South African district hospitals: an epidemiological modelling study. Lancet 2007; 370(9597):1500–1507.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. 60.
    Dye C, Williams BG. Eliminating human tuberculosis in the twenty-first century. J R Soc Interface 2008; 5(23):653–662.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. 61.
    Vynnycky E, Fine PEM. The natural history of tuberculosis: the implications of age-dependent risks of disease and the role of reinfection. Epidemiol Infect 1997; 119(2):183–201.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. 62.
    Ziv E, Daley CL, Blower SM. Early therapy for latent tuberculosis infection. Am J Epidemiol 2001; 153(4):381–385.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. 63.
    Gomes MGM, Rodrigues P, Hilker FM et al. Implications of partial immunity on the prospects for tuberculosis control by post-exposure interventions. J Theor Biol 2007; 248(4):608–617.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. 64.
    Porco TC, Small PM, Blower SM. Amplification dynamics: Predicting the effect of HIV on tuberculosis outbreaks. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2001; 28(5):437–444.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  65. 65.
    Dye C, Williams BG. Criteria for the control of drug-resistant tuberculosis. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2000; 97(14):8180–8185.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. 66.
    Caminero JA, Pena MJ, Campos-Herrero MI et al. Exogenous reinfection with tuberculosis on a European island with a moderate incidence of disease. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2001; 163(3):717–720.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  67. 67.
    Bandera A, Gori A, Catozzi L et al. Molecular epidemiology study of exogenous reinfection in an area with a low incidence of tuberculosis. J Clin Microbiol 2001; 39:2213–2218.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. 68.
    de Boer AS, Borgdorff MW, Vynnycky E et al. Exogenous re-infection as a cause of recurrent tuberculosis in a low-incidence area. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis 2003; 7(2):145–152.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  69. 69.
    Gomes MGM, White LJ, Medley GF. Infection, reinfection and vaccination under suboptimal immune protection: epidemiological perspectives. J Theor Biol 2004; 228(4):539–549.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  70. 70.
    Gomes MGM, White LJ, Medley GF. The reinfection threshold. J Theor Biol 2005; 236(1):111–113.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  71. 71.
    Gupta UD, Katoch VM, McMurray DN. Current status of TB vaccines. Vaccine 2007; 25(19):3742–3751.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  72. 72.
    Currie CSM, Floyd K, Williams BG et al. Cost, affordability and cost-effectiveness of strategies to control tuberculosis in countries with high HIV prevalence. BMC Public Health 2005; 5:14.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  73. 73.
    Fine PEM, Rodrigues LC. Modern vaccines: mycobacterial diseases. Lancet 1990; 335:1016–1020.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  74. 74.
    Bloom BR, Fine PE. The BCG experience: implications for future vaccines against TB. In: Bloom BR, ed. Tuberculosis Pathogenesis, Protection And Control. Washington, DC: American Society for Microbiology 1994:531–552.Google Scholar
  75. 75.
    Colditz GA, Brewer TF, Berkey CS et al. Efficacy of BCG vaccine in the prevention of tuberculosis. JAMA 1994; 271:698–702.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  76. 76.
    Behr MA, Wilson MA, Gill WP et al. Comparative genomics of BCG vaccines by whole-genome DNA microarray. Science 1999; 284:1520–1523.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  77. 77.
    Palmer CE, Long MW. Effects of infection with atypical mycobacteria on BCG vaccination and tuberculosis. Am Rev Respir Dis 1966; 94:553–568.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  78. 78.
    Fine PEM. Variation in protection by BCG: implications of and for heterologous immunity. Lancet 1995; 346:1339–1345.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  79. 79.
    Mossong J, Hens N, Jit M et al. Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases. PLoS Med 2008; 5(3):e74. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0050074.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  80. 80.
    Schulzer M, Radhamani MP, Grzybowski S et al. A Mathematical Model for the Prediction of the Impact of HIV Infection on Tuberculosis. Int J Epidemiol 1994; 23(2):400–407.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  81. 81.
    Bacaër N, Ouifki R, Pretorius C et al. Modeling the joint epidemics of TB and HIV in a South African township. J Math Biol 2008; 57:557–593.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  82. 82.
    Vynnycky E, Fine PEM. The annual risk of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis in England and Wales since 1901. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis 1997; 1(5):389–396.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  83. 83.
    Vynnycky E, Fine PEM. The long-term dynamics of tuberculosis and other diseases with long serial intervals: implications of and for changing reproduction numbers. Epidemiol Infect 1998; 121(2):309–324.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  84. 84.
    Vynnycky E, Fine PEM. Interpreting the decline in tuberculosis: the role of secular trends in effective contact. Int J Epidemiol 1999; 28(2):327–334.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  85. 85.
    Vynnycky E, Fine PEM. Lifetime risks, incubation period and serial interval of tuberculosis. Am J Epidemiol 2000; 152(3):247–263.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  86. 86.
    Kenyon TA, Valway SE, Ihle WW et al. Transmission of multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis during a long airplane flight. N Engl J Med 1996; 334:933–938.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  87. 87.
    Raffalli J, Sepkowitz KA, Armstrong D. Community-based outbreaks of tuberculosis. Arch Intern Med 1996; 156:1053–1060.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  88. 88.
    Barnes PF, Yang ZH, Pogoda JM et al. Foci of tuberculosis transmission in central Los Angeles. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 1999; 159(4):1081–1086.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  89. 89.
    Becerra MC, Pachao-Torreblanca IF, Bayona J et al. Expanding tuberculosis case detection by screening household contacts. Public Health Rep 2005; 120(3):271–277.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  90. 90.
    Verver S, Warren RM, Munch Z et al. Transmission of tuberculosis in a high incidence urban community in South Africa. Int J Epidemiol 2004; 33(2):351–357.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  91. 91.
    Horna-Campos OJ, Sanchez-Perez HJ, Sanchez I et al. Public transportation and pulmonary tuberculosis, Lima, Peru. Emerg Infect Dis 2007; 13(10):1491–1493.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  92. 92.
    Ohkado A, Nagamine M, Murase Y et al. Molecular epidemiology of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in an urban area in Japan, 2002–2006. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis 2008; 12(5):548–554.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  93. 93.
    Aparicio JP, Capurro AF, Castillo-Chavez C. Transmission and dynamics of tuberculosis on generalized households. J Theor Biol 2000; 206(3):327–341.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  94. 94.
    Song BJ, Castillo-Chavez C, Aparicio JP. Tuberculosis models with fast and slow dynamics: the role of close and casual contacts. Math Biosci 2002; 180:187–205.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  95. 95.
    Read JM, Keeling MJ. Disease evolution on networks: the role of contact structure. Proc R Soc Lond Ser B-Biol Sci 2003; 270:699–708.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  96. 96.
    Colijn C, Cohen T, Murray M. Emergent heterogeneity in declining tuberculosis epidemics. J Theor Biol 2007; 247(4):765–774.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  97. 97.
    Malakmadze N, Gonzalez IM, Oemig T et al. Unsuspected recent transmission of tuberculosis among high-risk groups: Implications of universal tuberculosis genotyping in its detection. Clin Infect Dis 2005; 40(3):366–373.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  98. 98.
    Story A, van Hest R, Hayward A. Tuberculosis and social exclusion—Developed countries need new strategies for controlling tuberculosis. Br Med J 2006; 333(7558):57–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  99. 99.
    Story A, Murad S, Roberts W et al. Tuberculosis in London: The importance of homelessness, problem drug use and prison. Thorax 2007; 62(8):667–671.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  100. 100.
    de Vries G, van Hest RA. From contact investigation to tuberculosis screening of drug addicts and homeless persons in Rotterdam. Eur J Public Health 2006; 16(2):133–136.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  101. 101.
    de Vries G, van Hest RAH, Richardus AH. Impact of mobile radiographic screening on tuberculosis among drug users and homeless persons. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2007; 176(2):201–207.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  102. 102.
    White PJ, Abubakar I, Garnett GP et al. Averting TB transmission in London by providing screening to prisoners, homeless people and problem drug users. (in preparation).Google Scholar
  103. 103.
    Feng ZL, Castillo-Chavez C, Capurro AF. A model for tuberculosis with exogenous reinfection. Theor Popul Biol 2000; 57(3):235–247.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  104. 104.
    Lipsitch M, Murray MB. Multiple equilibria: Tuberculosis transmission require unrealistic assumptions. Theor Popul Biol 2003; 63(2):169–170.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  105. 105.
    Murray M, Nardell E. Molecular epidemiology of tuberculosis: achievements and challenges to current knowledge. Bull World Health Organ 2002; 80(6):477–482.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  106. 106.
    Glynn JR, Bauer J, de Boer AS et al. Interpreting DNA fingerprint clusters of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis 1999; 3(12):1055–1060.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  107. 107.
    Glynn JR, Vynnycky E, Fine PEM. Influence of sampling on estimates of clustering and recent transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis derived from DNA fingerprinting techniques. Am J Epidemiol 1999; 149(4):366–371.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  108. 108.
    Vynnycky E, Nagelkerke N, Borgdorff MW et al. The effect of age and study duration on the relationship between ‘clustering’ of DNA fingerprint patterns and the proportion of tuberculosis disease attributable to recent transmission. Epidemiol Infect 2001; 126(1):43–62.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  109. 109.
    Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Emergence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis with extensive resistance to secondline drugs—worldwide, 2000–2004. Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2006; 55:301–305.Google Scholar
  110. 110.
    Raviglione M. XDR-TB: entering the post-antibiotic era? Int J Tuberc Lung Dis 2006; 10(11):1185–1187.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  111. 111.
    Gagneux S, Long CD, Small PM et al. The competitive cost of antibiotic resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Science 2006; 312:1944–1946.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  112. 112.
    Blower S, Supervie V. Predicting the future of XDR tuberculosis. Lancet Infect Dis 2007; 7(7):443–443.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  113. 113.
    Andrew SM, Baker CTH, Bocharov GA. Rival approaches to mathematical modelling in immunology. J Comput Appl Math 2007; 205(2):669–686.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  114. 114.
    Ganguli S, Gammack D, Kirschner DE. A metapopulation model of granuloma formation in the lung during infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Math Biosci Eng 2005; 2(3):535–560.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  115. 115.
    Kirschner D, Marino S. Mycobacterium tuberculosis as viewed through a computer. Trends Microbiol 2005; 13(5):206–211.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  116. 116.
    Lin PL, Kirschner D, Flynn JL. Modeling pathogen and host: in vitro, in vivo and in silico models of latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. Drug Discov Today: Disease Models 2005; 2(2):149–154.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  117. 117.
    Sud D, Bigbee C, Flynn JL et al. Contribution of CD8(+) T-cells to control of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. J Immunol 2006; 176(7):4296–4314.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  118. 118.
    Young D, Stark J, Kirschner D. Systems biology of persistent infection: tuberculosis as a case study. Nat Rev Microbiol 2008; 6(7):520–528.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  119. 119.
    Magombedze G, Garira W, Mwenje E. Mathematical modeling of chemotherapy of human TB infection. J Biol Syst 2006; 14(4):509–553.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  120. 120.
    Alavez-Ramirez J, Castellanos JRA, Esteva L et al. Within-host population dynamics of antibiotic-resistant M. tuberculosis. Math Med Biol 2007; 24(1):35–56.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  121. 121.
    Kirschner D. Dynamics of co-infection with M tuberculosis and HIV-1. Theor Popul Biol 1999; 55(1):94–109.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  122. 122.
    Bellamy R, Hill AV. Genetic susceptibility to mycobacteria and other infectious pathogens in humans. Curr Opin Immunol 1998; 10:483–487.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  123. 123.
    Hill AVS. The immunogenetics of human infectious diseases. Annu Rev Immunol 1998; 16:593–617.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  124. 124.
    Meyer CG, May J, Stark K. Human leukocyte antigens in tuberculosis and leprosy. Trends Microbiol 1998; 6(4):148–154.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  125. 125.
    Kramnik I, Dietrich WF, Demant P et al. Genetic control of resistance to experimental infection with virulent Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2000; 97(15):8560–8565.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  126. 126.
    Gagneux S, DeRiemer K, Van T et al. Variable host-pathogen compatibility in Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2006; 103(8):2869–2873.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  127. 127.
    Gagneux S, Small PM. Global phylogeography of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and implications for tuberculosis product development. Lancet Inf Dis 2007; 7(5):328–337.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  128. 128.
    Dye C, Zhao FZ, Scheele S et al. Evaluating the impact of tuberculosis control: number of deaths prevented by short-course chemotherapy in China. Int J Epidemiol 2000; 29(3):558–564.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  129. 129.
    Cohen T, Lipsitch M, Walensky RP et al. Beneficial and perverse effects of isoniazid preventive therapy for latent tuberculosis infection in HIV-tuberculosis coinfected populations. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2006; 103(18):7042–7047.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  130. 130.
    Heymann SJ. Modelling the efficacy of prophylactic and curative therapies for preventing the spread of tuberculosis in africa. Trans Roy Soc Trop Med Hyg 1993; 87(4):406–411.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  131. 131.
    Boily MC, Abu-Raddad L, Desai K et al. Measuring the public-health impact of candidate HIV vaccines as part of the licensing process. Lancet Inf Dis 2008; 8(3):200–207.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Landes Bioscience and Springer Science+Business Media 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  • Peter J. White
    • 1
    • 2
  • Geoff P. Garnett
    • 2
  1. 1.Modelling and Economics Unit, Health Protection Agency Centre for InfectionsLondonUK
  2. 2.MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of MedicineImperial College LondonLondonUK

Personalised recommendations