Cultural Consensus Theory: Aggregating Expert Judgments about Ties in a Social Network
This paper describes an approach to information aggregation called Cultural Consensus Theory (CCT). CCT is a statistical modeling approach to pooling information from informants (experts, automated sources) who share a common culture or knowledge base. Each informant responds to the same set of questions, and the goal is to estimate the consensus knowledge of the informants. CCT has become a leading methodology for determining consensus beliefs of groups in the social sciences, especially cultural and medical anthropology. The paper illustrates CCT by providing a model for aggregating expert judgments about ties in a social network. Expert sources each provide a digraph on the same set of nodes, and the CCT model is used to estimate the most likely digraph to represent their shared knowledge.
KeywordsSocial Network False Alarm Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method Probabilistic Constraint False Alarm Probability
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