Uncertain Population Dynamics and HIV/AIDS in China

  • Qiang Ren
  • Xiaoying Zheng
  • Wolfgang Lutz
  • Sergei Scherbov
Part of the The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis book series (PSDE, volume 22)

It is well known that China accounts for one-fifth of the population of the world, making China’s population trends directly relevant for global population dynamics. In this context, it is surprising how much uncertainty exists about current demographic conditions in the world’s largest country. Recently published estimates of China’s total fertility rate for around the year 2000 range from 1.22 (NSB, 2002a,b) to 2.3 (Liang, 2003) – a discrepancy of 1.1 children per woman. There are more than 30 estimates of the fertility levels. Though most cholars and organizations consistently agree that fertility in China is below the replacement level, there are also scholars who believe that fertility in China falls below the lowest levels, and is at a par with fertility in some of the southern European countries (see Ren, 2005; Zhang and Zhao, 2006).

Keywords

Migration Eter Pyramid Tempo Roundup 

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  • Qiang Ren
    • 1
  • Xiaoying Zheng
    • 1
  • Wolfgang Lutz
    • 1
  • Sergei Scherbov
    • 1
  1. 1.Institute of Population Research at Peking University100871 BeijingHaidian China

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