Quantitative Risk Assessment of Aircraft Impact on a High-Rise Building and Collapse

Abstract

A quantitative risk assessment method was developed to determine individual and societal risk to people living and working in high-rise towers, subjected to air. First the generalized method is described. The method takes as inputs phenomenological models of aircraft impact, explosion and fire threats to the building beside the factors characterizing environment and conditions of the incident. As a next step a simplified version is presented and an example given inspired by the WTC buildings disaster in New York in 2001. A ranking order of risk contributing factors is given and recommendations listed for risk reduction. Finally recommendations are made for continued development of the method, since this work can only be considered as preliminary.