Most of the parameters used in slope stability analyses, in particular the mechanical soil properties, are uncertain. Probability theory and reliability analyses can provide a rational framework for dealing with uncertainties. Different methods for doing reliability analysis for slopes are discussed in this study and applied to case studies. The results obtained from FOSM, PEM, and FORM via response surface method combined with the finite element method are compared, and the parameters which contribute most to the uncertainty in the factor of safety are identified.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Ang, A.H.S., and Tang, W.,1984. Probability concepts in engineering planning and design. Vol. 1, Basic principles. John Wiley and Sons, New York, USA.
Bucher, C.G., Chen, Y.M., and Schuller, G.I., 1989. “Time variant reliability analysis utilizing response surface approach.” Proc., 2nd International Federation for Information Processing, Working Group 7.5 Conf., Springer, Berlin.
Bucher, C.G., and Bourgund, U., 1990. “A fast and efficient response surface approach for structural reliability problems.” Struct. Safety, Amsterdam, 7, 57–66.
Chowdhury, R.N., 1984. Recent development in landslide studies: Probability methods state of the art report. The forth international symposium on landslides, Vol.1, 209–228.
Christian, J.T., Ladd, C.C., and Baecher, G.B. 1994. “Reliability applied to slope stability analysis.” J. Geotech. Eng., Vol.120, No.12, 2180–2207.
Christian J.T., 1996. Reliability methods for atability of existing slopes. Proceedings of Uncertainty in the geologic environment: From theory to Practice. Geotechnical special publication No.58, 409–418.
Christian, J.T., and Baecher, G.B., 2002. The point-estimate method with large numbers of variables. International Journal for Numerical and analytical methods in geomechanics, 26, 1515–1529.
Christian, J.T., 2004. Geotechnical Engineering reliability: How well do we know what we are doing? ASCE Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 120(12):2180–2207.
Duncan, J.M., 2000. Factors of safety and reliability in geotechnical engineering. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, Vol. 126, No.4, 307–316.
El-Ramly H., Morgenstern N.R., and Cruden D.M., 2002. Probabilistic slope stability analysis for practice, Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 39, 665–683.
El-Ramly H., Morgenstern N.R., and Cruden D.M., 2003. Probabilistic stability analysis of a tailings dyke on presheared clay-shale Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 40 192–208.
Fenton, G.A., and Griffiths, D.V., 2005. A slope stability reliability model, Proceedings of the K.Y. Lo Symposium, on CD, London, Ontario, Jul 7-8.
Griffiths, D.V., and Fenton, G.A., 2004. Probabilistic slope stability by finite elements, ASCE Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 130(5), 507–518.
Hasofer, A.M., and Lind, N.C., 1974. An exact and invariant first order reliability format. ASCE Journal of Engineering Mechanics Division, 100, EM1, 111-121.
Hassan A.M., and Wolff, T.F., 2000. Effect of deterministic and probabilistic models on slope reliability index. Geotechnical special publication No.101, Slope stability, ASCE194-208.
Huh, J., and Haldar, A., 2001. Stochastic finite element based seismic risk of nonlinear structures. Journal of structural engineering, Vol. 127, No.3, 323–329.
Kvalstad T.J., Nadim F., Kaynia A.M., Mokkelbost K.H., Bryn P., 2005. Soil conditions and slope stability in the Ormen Lange area, Marine and Petroleum Geology, Vol. 22, 299–310
Ladd, C.C., Foott, R., 1974. New design procedures for stability of soft clays. Journal of the Geotechnical Engineering Division, ASCE 100 (GT7), 763-786.
Li, K.S., and Lumb, P., 1987. Probabilistic design of slopes. Canadian Geotechnical journal, 24: 520–535.
Maia, J.A.C., and Assis, A.P., 2005. Reliability analysis of iron mine slopes. Proceedings of the international conference on landslide risk management, Vancouver, Canada, 31 May-3 June, 623–627.
Mienert, J., 2004. COSTA-continental slope stability : major aims and topics. Marine Geology, Vol. 213, No 1-4, 1–8.
Nadim, F., and Lacasse, S., 1999. Probabilistic slope stability evaluation. Geotechnical risk management, Geotechnical division, Hongkong Institution of Enginners, 179-186.
Nadim, F., and Locat, J., 2005. Risk assessment for submarine slides. Proceedings of the international conference on landslide risk management, Vancouver, Canada, 31 May-3 June, 321–333.
Nadim, F., Kvalstad, T.J., and Guttormsen, T., 2005. Quatification of risks associated with seabed instability at Ormen Lange. Marine and Petroleum Geology, 22, 311–318.
Plaxis, 2001. http://www.plaxis.nl.
Rajashekhar, M.R., and Ellingwood, B.R. (1993). “A new look at the response surface approach for reliability analysis.” Struct. Safety, Amsterdam, 12, 205–220.
Rosenblueth, E. 1975. “Point Estimates for Probability Moments,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, USA, 72(10), 3812–3814.
Wong, F.S., 1985. Slope reliability and response surface method. Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, Vol. 111, No.1, 32–53.
Xu, B., and Low, B.K., 2006. Probability stability analyses of embankments based on finite element method. Journal of geotechnical and geoenviromental engineering, vol. 132, No.11, 1444–1454.
Yang, S.L., Kvalstad T.J., Solheim A., and Forsberg C.F., 2007. Slope stability at Northern Flank of Storegga Slide. Accepted by the international conference on offshoe and Polar engineering, July, Lisbon, Portugal.
Zienkiewicz, O.C., Humpheson, C., and Lewis, R.W., 1975. “Associated and non-associated viscoplasticity and plasticity in soil mechanics.” Geotechnique, 25:4, 6.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2007 Springer
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Yang, S., Nadim, F., Forsberg, C.F. (2007). Probability Study On Submarine Slope Stability. In: Lykousis, V., Sakellariou, D., Locat, J. (eds) Submarine Mass Movements and Their Consequences. Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, vol 27. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-6512-5_17
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-6512-5_17
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-1-4020-6511-8
Online ISBN: 978-1-4020-6512-5
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)