Base Case Projection

  • Darius M. Adams
Part of the Managing Forest Ecosystems book series (MAFE, volume 14)

This chapter presents a “base case” projection that assumes no change in current public and private policies for the forest and related sectors. It provides one view of future changes in the forest sector and a partial basis for identifying emerging trends that might influence future forest management or forest products production. It envisions continued strong growth in total US forest products requirements (domestic consumption plus exports) to 2050. Imports would continue to grow, but provide a smaller share of the expansion in product requirements over the 2002–2050 period than they did over the 1952–2002 period. Future harvests from domestic forests would expand each year by 3.1Mm, close to the trend over the last 50 years of 3.4Mm3/year. At the same time, real product price growth would fall below long-term historical rates for all products.


British Columbia Mountain Pine Beetle Forest Cover Type Average Annual Percent Change NIPF Ownership 
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  1. British Columbia Ministry of Forests, Forest Service [BCMF] (2005) Provinciallevel projection of the current mountain pine beetle outbreak: an overview of the model (BCMPB v2) and results of year 2 of the project. Cited October 2005
  2. Mendall B, Newman D, Wear D, Greis J (2007) The changing landscape of timberland ownership in the South. USDA Forest Service Working Pap (unnumbered). On file with: The Southern Forest Resource Assessment Consortium, David Wear, USDA Forest Service, Research Triangle Park, NC (in press)Google Scholar
  3. Smith WB, Miles PD, Vissage JS, Pugh SA (2004) Forest resources of the United States, 2002. Gen Tech Rep NC-241. USDA, Forest Service, North Central Research Station, St. Paul, MNGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  • Darius M. Adams
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Forest ResourcesOregon State UniversityCorvallisUSA

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