European Transportation in the Greenhouse — System and Policy Indicators

The purpose of this paper is to give a brief overall account of the present situation and outlook in terms of transport energy use and GHG emissions in the context of European Union transport policy. This topic is a huge one, and no attempt at comprehension is claimed. Instead the assessment will be based on a selection of a few key indicators, which the author believes are important to evaluate the present situation and identify challenges for future action and research. The indicators are all drawn from official sources or scholarly studies, while the ways in which they are interpreted and presented here are those of the author alone. During 2006 the European transport policy White Paper will undergo an official mid-term review by the European Commission. This will provide an opportunity for further reflections and possibly new directions for some of the issues to be discussed here. The present paper will first (in Section 10.2) present what we call system indicators, with the aim to highlight some critical aspects of the European transport systems’ standing in terms of volume, growth, energy use and GHG emissions. Then the paper moves into policy. Section 10.3 highlights a few fundamental conditions for transport policy-making in the European Union, while Section 10.4 will go through some of the relevant targets and measures that have been adopted, evaluating them one by one with simple policy indicators. After summing up performance, Section 10.5 will address the outlooks for European transport beyond the present Kyoto agreement period, and some research issues related to policy implementation in that context will be identified. Finally a few conclusive statements are proposed, not about how much European transport, exactly, there will be room for in the common greenhouse of the future, but rather on the kinds of discussions that need to be faced in dealing with this sector’s climate impact in the coming years.