Advertisement

Climate variability, predictability and climate risks: a European perspective

  • Heinz Wanner
  • Martin Grosjean
  • Regine Röthlisberger
  • Elena Xoplaki
Chapter

Abstract

The aim of climate research is to increase our knowledge about the nature of climate and the causes of climate variability and change. Increasing our understanding of the physical processes on various spatial and temporal scales will ultimately reduce uncertainty and improve our capabilities to predict climate on monthly to seasonal timescales and allow us to separate the anthropogenic and natural causes of long term climate change.

Keywords

Climate Policy Future Climate Change Climate Risk Global Circulation Model Third Assessment Report 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Allen MR, Booth BBB, Frame DJ, Gregory JM, Kettleborough JA, Smith LA, Stainforth DA, Stott PA (2004) Observational constraints on future climate: distinguishing robust from model-dependent statements of uncertainty in climate forecasting. In: Manning et al. (eds) Describing scientific uncertainties in climate change to support analysis of risk and of options May 2004 IPCC workshop report. IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit, Boulder, Colorado, USA, pp 53–57(Available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/)Google Scholar
  2. Allen MR, Stott PA, Mitchell JFB, Schnur R, Delworth TL (2000) Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change. Nature 407:617–620CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bahn O, Drouet L, Edwards NR, Haurie A, Knutti R, Kypreos S, Stocker TF, Vial JP (2006) The coupling of optimal economic growth and climate dynamics. Clim Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-9108-4 (this issue)Google Scholar
  4. Brohan P, Kennedy JJ, Harris I, Tett SFB, Jones PD (2006) Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850. J Geophys Res DOI: 10.1029/2005JD00654Google Scholar
  5. Bürgenmeier B, Baranzini A, Ferrier C, Germond-Duret C, Ingold K, Perret S, Rafaj P, Kypreos S, Wokaun A (2006) Economics of climate policy and collective decision making. Clim Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-9147-x (this issue)Google Scholar
  6. Calanca P, Roesch A, Jasper K, Wild M (2006) Global warming and the summertime evapotranspiration regime of the alpine region. Clim Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-9103-9 (this issue)Google Scholar
  7. Dessai S, Hulme M (2004) Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities? Climate Policy 4:107–128CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Esper J, Wilson RJS, Frank DC, Moberg A, Wanner H, Luterbacher J (2005) Climate: past ranges and future changes. Quat Sci Rev 24:2164–2166CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Fuhrer J, Beniston M, Fischlin A, Frei C, Goyette S, Jasper K, Pfister C (2006) Climate risks and their impact on agriculture and forests in switzerland. Clim Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-9106-6 (this issue)Google Scholar
  10. Goosse H, Renssen H, Timmermann A, Bradley RS (2005) Natural and forced climate variability during the last millennium: A model-data comparison using ensemble simulations Quat Sci Rev 24:1345–1360CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Goosse H, Renssen H, Timmermann A, Bradley RS, Mann ME (2006) Using paleoclimate proxy-data to select and optimal realisation in an ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium Clim Dynam.. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-006-0128-6, 27:165–184CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Hammit JK, Lempert RJ, Schlesinger ME (1992) A sequential-decision strategy for abating climate change. Nature 357:315–318CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Knutti R, Stocker TF, Joos F, Plattner GK (2002) Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles. Nature 416:719–723CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Lempert R, Nakicenovic N, Sarewitz D, Schlesinger ME (2004) Characterizing climate-change uncertainties for decision-makers. Clim Change 65:1–9CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Luterbacher J, Dietrich D, Xoplaki E, Grosjean M, Wanner H (2004) European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since 1500. Science 303:1499–1503CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Mahlman JD (1997) Uncertainties in projections of human-caused climate warming. Science 278:1416–1417CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Mann ME, Bradley RS, Hughes MK (1999) Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: inferences, uncertainties, and limitations. Geophys Res Lett 26:759–762CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Manne AS, Richels RG (1995) The greenhouse debate: economic efficiency, burden sharing and hedging strategies. Energy J 16:1–37Google Scholar
  19. Manning et al. (eds.) (2004) Describing scientific uncertainties in climate change to support analysis of risk and of options, may 2004 ipcc workshop report. IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit, Boulder, Colorado, USA, pp 138. (Available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/)Google Scholar
  20. Mearns LO, Hulme M, Carter TR, Leemans R, Lal M, Whetton PH (2001) Climate scenario development. Chapter 13 In: Houghton J, et al. (eds), Clim Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, pp 739–768Google Scholar
  21. Moss RH, Schneider SH (2000) In: Pachauri R, Taniguchi T, Tanaka K (eds), Guidance papers on the cross cutting issues of the third assessment report. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, pp 33–57Google Scholar
  22. Raible CC, Casty C, Luterbacher J, Pauling A, Esper J, Frank DC, Büntgen U, Roesch AC, Tschuck P, Wild M, Vidale PL, Schär C, Wanner H (2006) Climate variability — observations, reconstructions, and model simulations for the atlantic-european and alpine region from 1500–2100 AD. Clim Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-9061-2 (this issue)Google Scholar
  23. Reilly J, Stone PH, Forest CE, Webster MD, Jacoby HD, Prinn RG (2001) Climate change: uncertainty and climate change assessments. Science 293:430–433CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Sarewitz D, Pielke RA Jr., Keykhah M (2003) Vulnerability and risk: some thoughts from a political and policy perspective. Risk Analysis 23:805–810CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Schwierz C, Appenzeller C, Davies HC, Liniger MA, Müller W, Stocker TF, Yoshimori M (2006) Challenges posed by and approaches to the study of seasonal-to-decadal climate variability. Clim Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-9076-8 (this issue)Google Scholar
  26. Stott P, Kettleborough JA (2002) Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise. Nature 416:723–726CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Viguier L, Barreto L, Haurie A, Kypreos S, Rafaj P (2006) Modeling endogenous learning and imperfect competition effects in climate change economics. Clim Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-9070-1 (this issue)Google Scholar
  28. Webster M (2002) The curious role of learning in climate policy: should we wait for more data? Energy J 23:97–119Google Scholar
  29. Webster M (2003) Communicating climate change uncertainty to policy-makers and the public. Clim Change 61:1–8CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Webster M, Forest C, Reilly J, Babiker M, Kicklighter D, Mayer M, Prinn R, Sarofim M, Sokolov A, Stone P, Wang C (2003) Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response. Clim Change 61:295–320CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Wigley TML, Raper SCB (2001) Interpretations of high projections for global-mean warming. Science 293:451–454CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Xoplaki E, Luterbacher J, Paeth H, Dietrich D, Steiner N, Grosjean M, Wanner H (2005) European spring and autumn land temperatures, variability and change of extremes over the last half millennium. Geophys Res Lett 32:L15713CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Yoshimori M, Stocker TF, Raible CC, Renold M (2005) Externally-forced and internal variability in ensemble climate simulations of the Maunder Minimum. J Climate 18:4253–4270CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2006

Authors and Affiliations

  • Heinz Wanner
    • 1
  • Martin Grosjean
    • 1
  • Regine Röthlisberger
    • 1
  • Elena Xoplaki
    • 1
  1. 1.NCCR ClimateUniversity of BernBernSwitzerland

Personalised recommendations