What the Future Holds

Abstract

Successful planning forecasts have to rely on the projection of past trends into the future. This requires full appraisal of the interplay of the various social and economic variables affecting change. But even in the most favourable circumstances many factors converge to make prognostication a hazardous and uncertain exercise. Adequate statistical information is clearly necessary, but in under-developed countries is often simply not available to planners. Thus, speaking of employment in India the Fourth Five Year Plan points out that ‘No comprehensive surveys were available of the situation in urban and rural areas at different points of time which would make it possible to check the validity of the estimates made. The estimates carried over from Plan to Plan appeared less and less firmly based’ (P.C., 1969:341). In this kind of situation planning comes to rest on sheer guesswork.