High and Low-Skilled Labour in a Macroeconometric Model of the Netherlands

  • D. P. Broer
  • D. A. G. Draper
  • A. Houweling
  • F. H. Huizinga
  • P. A. de Jongh


This paper presents a preliminary version of a new macroeconometric model developed at the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. It is the result of a research effort with two major objectives. The first one is to build a model that is suitable for short, medium and long-term analyses. The rationale behind this goal is that many current policies and policy proposals are aimed at improving the structure of the economy. Thus, these policies aim to change the equilibrium of the economy. However, the new equilibrium obviously is not reached overnight, and these policies may in effect have very different short and medium-term effects. In particular, the short/ medium and long-term welfare effects of these policies may be of opposite sign, following the saying of ‘no pain, no gain,’ and it is this trade-off between ‘current pain’ and ‘future gain’ that often makes it unclear whether a policy should be adopted, or at least makes the proposal controversial.


Labour Supply Price Elasticity Social Security Contribution Unemployment Duration Wage Curve 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Allen, C.B. (1994), “A Supply Side Model of the UK Economy: An Application of Non-linear Cointegration,” Centre for Economic Forecasting Discussion Paper.Google Scholar
  2. Bean, C.R. (1994), “European Unemployment: A Survey,” Journal of Economic Literature, 32:573–619.Google Scholar
  3. Berman, E., J. Bound and Z. Griliches (1994), “Changes in the Demand for Skilled Labor within U.S. Manufacturing: Evidence from the Annual Survey of Manufacturers,” Quarterly Journal of Economics: 367–97.Google Scholar
  4. Bodkin, R.G., L.R. Klein and K. Marwah (1991), A History of Macroeconometric Model Building, Edward Elgar, Bmokfield.Google Scholar
  5. Brayton, F. and E. Mauskopf (1985), “The Federal Reserve Board MPS Quarterly Econometric Model of the U.S. Economy,” Economic Modelling, 2:170–292.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Broer, D.P. and W.J. Jansen, (1989), “Employment, Schooling and Productivity Growth,” De Economist, 137:425–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. CBS (1993), Standaard onderwijsindeling SOI-1978, ed. 1993; codelijst van opleidingen.Google Scholar
  8. CBS (1996), Tijdreeksen arbeidsrekeningen 1969–1993. Ramingen van het opleidingsniveau, een tussenstand, Statistics Netherlands, Voorburg.Google Scholar
  9. CPB (1983), FREIA, Een macroeconomisch model voor de middellange termijn (FREIA, A Macroeconomic Model for the Medium Term), Distributiecentrum Overheidspublicaties.Google Scholar
  10. CPB (1990), ATHENA, Een bedrijfstakkenmodel voor de Nederlandse economie, CPB monograph no. 30.Google Scholar
  11. CPB (1992), FKSEC, A Macroeconometric Model for the Netherlands, Stenfert Kroese.Google Scholar
  12. De Nederlandsche Bank (1984), MORKMON, Een Kwartaalmodel voor Economische Analyse (MORKMON, a Quarterly Model for Economic Analysis), Kluwer.Google Scholar
  13. Diewert, W. and T. Wales (1987), “Flexible Foms and Global Curvature Conditions,” Econometrica, 55:43–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Diewert, W. and T. Wales (1995), “Flexible Forms and Tests of Homogeneous Separability,” Journal of Econometrics, 67:259–302.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Draper D. (1989), Produktieblok voor de niet beschermde sector, intern CPB memo 1189/14, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.Google Scholar
  16. Draper D. and A. Manders (1996a), “Why Did the Demand for Dutch Low-skilled Workers Decline?,” CPB Report, Quarterly Review of CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Palicy Analysis, 1996, no I.Google Scholar
  17. Draper D. and A. Manders (1996b), Structural Changes in the Demand for Labor, CPB Research Memorandum No 128, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.Google Scholar
  18. Fase, M.M.G., P. Kramer and W.C. Boeschoten (1990), MORKMONII, Het DNB kwartaalmodel van de Nederlandse economie, DNB, Monetaire monografiënGoogle Scholar
  19. Fisher, F.M., L.R. Klein and Y Shinkai (1965), “Price and Output aggregation in the Brookings Econometric Model,” in: J.S. Duesenbeny, G. Fromm, L.R. Klein and E. Kuh (eds.), The Brookings Quarterly Econometric Model of the United States, Rand McNally Company, Chicago.Google Scholar
  20. Gelauff, G., A. de Haan and V. Okker, (1986), Een macro produktiefunctie zonder jaargangen, voorlopige resultaten, intern CPB memo I/86/14, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.Google Scholar
  21. Gelauff, G.M.M, and J.J. Graafland (1994), Modelling Welfare State Reform, North Holland, Amstendam.Google Scholar
  22. Graafland, J.J. (1991), “Effecten van marginale belasting-en premiedruk op loonvorming,” Maandschrift Economie, 55:442–55Google Scholar
  23. Graafland, J.J. (1992), “From Phillips Curve to Wage Curve,” De Economist, 140:501–14CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Graafland, J.J. and F.H. Huizinga (1996), Taxes and Benefits in a Non-linear Wage Equation, CPB Research Memorandum No 125, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.Google Scholar
  25. Graafland, J.J. and J.P. Verbruggen (1993), “Macro Against Sectoral Wage Equations for the Netherlands,” Applied Economics, 25:1373–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Hall, S.G. (1995), “Macroeconomics and a Bit More Reality,” Economic Journal, 105:914–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Hamermesh, D.S. (1993), Labor Demand, Princeton University Press, Princeton.Google Scholar
  28. Hebbink, G.E. (1991), “Employment by Level of Education and Production Factor Substitutability,” De Economist, 139:379–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Huigen, R, A. Kleiweg, G. van Leeuwen and K. Zeelenberg (1993), A Microeconometric Analysis of lnterrelated Factor Demands, Research paper MOPS-30, Statistics Netherlands, Voorburg.Google Scholar
  30. Jorgenson D. (1986), “Econometric Methods for Modelling Producer behavior,” in: Z. Griliches and M. Intriligator (eds.), Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. III, North Holland, Amsterdam.Google Scholar
  31. Knoester, A. and N. van der Windt (1987), “Real Wages and Taxation in Ten OECD Countries,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 49:151–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Layard, P.R.G. and S.J. Nickell (1986), “Unemploment in Britain,” Economica, 53:s121–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Layard, R., S. Nickell and R. Jackman (1991), Unemployment, Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market, Oxford University Press, Oxford.Google Scholar
  34. Layard, R., S. Nickell and R. Jackman (1994), The Unemployment Crisis, Oxford University Press, Oxford.Google Scholar
  35. Lucas, R.E. (1976), “Econometric Policy Evaluation, A Critique,” in: K. Brunner and A. Meltzer (eds.), The Phillips Curve and Labor Markets, Carnegy-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy.Google Scholar
  36. National Institute (1994), National Institute Model 12, mimeo.Google Scholar
  37. Nieuwenhuis, A. (1995), Imperfect Competition and Aggregate Price Equations, mimeo.Google Scholar
  38. Ours, J. van and G. Ridder (1991), “Cyclical Variation in Vacancy Durations and Vacancy Flows,” European Economic Review, 35:1143–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Ours, J. van, G. Ridder (1995), “Job Matching and Job Competition: Are Lower Educated Workers at the Back of Job Queues?,” European Economic Review, 39:1717–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Preston, R.S. (1975), “The Wharton Long Term Model: Input-Output Within the Context of a Macro Forecasting Model,” International Economic Review, 16:3–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Shadman-Mehta, F. and H. Sneessens (1995), Skill Demand and Factor Substitution, CEPR Discussion paper No. 1279, London.Google Scholar
  42. Sims, C. (1980), “Macroeconomics and Reality,” Econometrica, 48:1–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Stadler, G.W. (1994), “Real Business Cycles,” Journal of Economic Literature, 23:1750–83.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited 1998

Authors and Affiliations

  • D. P. Broer
  • D. A. G. Draper
  • A. Houweling
  • F. H. Huizinga
  • P. A. de Jongh

There are no affiliations available

Personalised recommendations