Growth and Political Violence in Northern Ireland, 1920–96

Abstract

It is a sad comment on the state of our world that certain regions are generally perceived as being ‘theatres of war’. For the past quarter of a century, Northern Ireland has been such a region. Reviled by their countrymen, ignored by investors and shunned by tourists, the 1.5 million residents of Northern Ireland have had to bear the opprobrium of a violence which was perpetrated by only a handful of their number and towards which the vast majority of the province’s population, in common with the rest of the world, felt nothing but revulsion. Today, given the Irish Republican Army (IRA) cease-fire in July 1997, there is a reasonable prospect that this long nightmare may have ended and that ‘the Troubles’ (as the political violence in Northern Ireland is euphemistically termed) may be over. If so, then what prospect does this hold for economic welfare in Northern Ireland?

I am very grateful to Norman Gibson, who made many valuable suggestions which greatly improved the chapter. An earlier version of this chapter was presented at a seminar on ‘The Economic and Statistical Enquiry Society of Ireland’, Dublin. My thanks go to participants at both seminars for their comments. Needless to say, I alone am responsible for any shortcomings.