The European Trade Cycle: 1850–1913
There appears to be a strong tradition in the literature on European business cycles that by the beginning of the twentieth century these events are correlated quite closely across countries. The most prominent lines of influence mentioned in the literature are either real (with either foreign trade or capital flows serving as the transmission mechanism) or nominal (with the gold standard serving in the same capacity). Most studies deal with a particular country, the result being that what we could call the ‘pan-European cycle’ is hard to pin down, even though many of the parts to the puzzle exist. Broadly, then, we propose to search the empirical record, with the object being a closer identification of the common cyclical influences in this period.
KeywordsBusiness Cycle Integrate Economy Cointegration Test Agricultural Income Financial Panic
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