Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in
Book cover

Is the Economic Cycle Still Alive? pp 139–179Cite as

Palgrave Macmillan

The Use of Cyclical Indicators in Business Cycle Analysis

  • Chapter

  • 27 Accesses

Part of the book series: Central Issues in Contemporary Economic Theory and Policy ((CICETP))

Abstract

The cyclical indicator approach, which is extensively used as a business cycle analysis tool, employs a series of variables which tend to anticipate, coincide with or lag behind the movements of economic activity to indicate the phases of the business cycle.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD   169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Bibliography

  1. Auerbach A.J.: «The Index of Leasing Indicators: Measurement Without Theory, Thirty Five Years Later», Review of Economics and Statistics, n. 64, 1982.

    Google Scholar 

  2. Baragona R.: «Una procedura per la costruzione di un indice sintetico del ciclo economico», Atti delta XXXIII Riunione scientifica dlia Societ italiana di statistica, Bari, 1986.

    Google Scholar 

  3. Baragona R. — Carlucci F.: «Aggregating Cyclical Fluctuations in a Composite Index»; Dipartimento di statistica, Probabilit e statistiche applicate, srie A, n. 16, 1989.

    Google Scholar 

  4. Beveridge S. — Nelson C.R.: «A New Approach to the Decomposition of Economic Time Series into Permanent and Transient Components with Particular Attention to Measurement of the Business Cycle», Journal of Monetary Economics, n. 7, 1981.

    Google Scholar 

  5. Blanchard OJ. — Watson M.W.: «Are Business Cycles All Alike?», Working Paper, n. 1392, 1984.

    Google Scholar 

  6. Box G. - Jenkins G.: Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, San Francisco, Holden-Day, 1976.

    Google Scholar 

  7. Bry G. - Boschan C: «Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected procedures and Computer Programs», NBER, Technical Paper, n. 20, 1971.

    Google Scholar 

  8. Burns A. - Mitchell W.C.: «Measuring Business Cycle», NBER, New York, Columbia University Press, Studies in Business Cycle, n. 2, 1946.

    Google Scholar 

  9. Campbell J.Y. - Mankiw N.G.: «Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?», Quarterly Journal of Economics, n. 102, 1987.

    Google Scholar 

  10. Clark P.K.: «The Cyclical Components of the US Economic Activity», Quarterly Journal of Economics, n. 102, 1987.

    Google Scholar 

  11. Cochrane J.H.: «How Big is the Random Walk in GNP?», Journal of Political Economy, n. 96, 1988.

    Google Scholar 

  12. Commissione della Comunità Europea: European Economy, supplement B, July 1991.

    Google Scholar 

  13. Christiano L.J. — Ljungqvist L.: «Money does Granger-Cause Output in the Bivariate Money-Output Relation», Journal of Monetary Economics, n. 22, 1988.

    Google Scholar 

  14. de Leeuw F.: «Toward a Theory of Leading Indicators», in Lahiri K. — Moore G.H. (eds.): Leading Economic Indicators, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1991. [15] De Leeuw F.: «Leading Indicators and the “Prime Mover” View», Survey of Current Business, n. 69, 1989.

    Google Scholar 

  15. D’elia E.: «La quantificazione dei risultati dei sondaggi congiunturali: un confronto tra procedure», ISCO, Rassegna dei lavori dell’istituto, n. 13, 1991.

    Google Scholar 

  16. De Nicola E.: «Una nuova misura del grado di consistenza ciclica degli indicatori congiunturali: l’indice MDC», Isco, Rassegna dei lavori interni dell’istituto, n. 9, 1967.

    Google Scholar 

  17. De Nicola E.: «Cicli classici e cicli di crescita: analisi a doppio “binario” delie serie storiche», Note economiche, n. 2, 1981.

    Google Scholar 

  18. Diebold F.X. — Rudebusch G.D.: «Scoring Leading Indicators», Journal of Business, n. 62, 1989.

    Google Scholar 

  19. Diebold F.X. — Rudebusch G.D.: «Turning Point Prediction with the Composite Leading Index», in Lahiri K. — Moore G.H. (eds.): Leading Economic Indicators, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1991.

    Google Scholar 

  20. Doan T. — Litterman R. — Sims C: «Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions», Econometrics Reviews, n. 3, 1984.

    Google Scholar 

  21. Ebanks W. — Boschan C: «The Phase Average Trend: A New Way of Measuring Economic Growth», Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1978.

    Google Scholar 

  22. Engle R.F. — Granger C.W.: Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing, Econometrica, n. 55, 1987.

    Google Scholar 

  23. Engle R.F. — Watson M.W.: «A One-Factor Multivariate Time Series Model of Metropolitan Wage Rates», Journal of the American Statistical Association, n. 76, 1981.

    Google Scholar 

  24. Friedman M. — Schwartz A.: «Money and Business Cycle», Review of Economic and Statistics, n. 45, 1963.

    Google Scholar 

  25. Gennari P.: «L’uso delle indagini congiunturali ISCO per la previsione degli indici della produzione industriale», ISCO, Rassegna dei lavori dell’istituto, n. 13, 1991.

    Google Scholar 

  26. Granger C.W.: «Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross Spectral Methods», Econometrica, n. 37, 1969.

    Google Scholar 

  27. Greenspan A.: «Commento a Hymans S.: On the Use of Leading Indicators to Predict Cyclical Turning Points», Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, n. 2, 1973.

    Google Scholar 

  28. Hamilton J.D.: «A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycles», Econometrica, n. 57, 1989.

    Google Scholar 

  29. Harvey A.C.: «Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series», Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, n. 3, 1985.

    Google Scholar 

  30. Hymans S.: «On the Use of Leading Indicators to Predict Cyclical Turning Points», Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, n. 2, 1973.

    Google Scholar 

  31. King R.G. — Plosser C.I. — Rebello S.T.: «Production, Growth and Business Cycles I: The Basic Neoclassical Model», Journal of Monetary Economics, n. 21, 1988.

    Google Scholar 

  32. Klein P.A.: Analyzing Modern Business Cycles.: Essays in Honor of Geoffrey H. Moore, New York, Sharpe, 1990.

    Google Scholar 

  33. Klein P.A. — Moore G.H.: «The Leading Indicator Approach to Economic Forecasting», Journal of Forecasting, n. 2, 1983.

    Google Scholar 

  34. Klein P.A. — Moore G.H.: Monitoring Growth Cycles in Market Oriented Economies, New York, NBER, 1985.

    Google Scholar 

  35. Kling J.L.: «Predicting the Turning Points of Business and Economics Time Series», Journal of Business, n. 60, 1987.

    Google Scholar 

  36. Koch P.D. — Rasche R.H.: «An Examination of the Commerce Department Leading-Indicator Approach», Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, n. 6, 1988.

    Google Scholar 

  37. Koopmans T.C.: «Measurement Without Theory», Review of Economic and Statistics, n. 2, 1947.

    Google Scholar 

  38. Lippi M. — Reichlin L.: «Componenti permanenti e transitorie in macroeconomia», in Amendola M.: Innovazione e progresso tecnico, Bologna, il Mulino, 1990.

    Google Scholar 

  39. Lucas R.E. Jr.: «Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique», Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, n. 1, 1976.

    Google Scholar 

  40. Lucas R.E. Jr.: «Understanding Business Cycles», Carnagie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy, n. 5, 1977.

    Google Scholar 

  41. Marruco E. — De Nicola E.: «Problematiche inerenti alia stima ottimale del ciclo-trend nelle srie storiche economiche», ISCO, Rassegna dei lavori dell’istitu-to, n. 23, 1978.

    Google Scholar 

  42. Mc Culloch J.H.: «The Montecarlo Cycle in Business Activity», Economic Inquiry, n. 13, 1975.

    Google Scholar 

  43. Miconi G.: Il metodo del National Bureau of Economic Research e la sua applicazione in Italia ai fini dlie diagnosi congiunturali, Roma, ISCO, 1961.

    Google Scholar 

  44. Miconi G.: «Appunti di metodologia», Congiuntura economica, ISCO, March, 1968.

    Google Scholar 

  45. Miconi F. — De Nicola E.: «Applicazioni del metodo del NBER», in ISCO: Rassegna dei lavori interni dell’istituto, n. 2, 1964.

    Google Scholar 

  46. Mintz I.: «Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods and Their Applications to Western Germany: 1950–67», NBER, Occasional Paper, n. 107, 1969.

    Google Scholar 

  47. Mintz I.: «Dating American Growth Cycles», in Zarnowitz V.: The Business Cycle Today, New York, NBER, 1972.

    Google Scholar 

  48. Mitchell W.C.: «Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting», NBER, Studies in Business Cycles, n. 1, 1927.

    Google Scholar 

  49. Mitchell W.C. — Burns A.F.: «Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals», NBER, Bulletin, n. 69, 1938.

    Google Scholar 

  50. Moore G.H.: «Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals and Recessions», NBER, Occasional Papers, n. 31, 1950.

    Google Scholar 

  51. Moore G.H.: Business Cycle Indicators, Princeton, University Press, 1961.

    Google Scholar 

  52. Moore G.H.: Business Cycle, Inflation, and Forecasting, Cambridge (Mass.), Ballinger, 1980.

    Google Scholar 

  53. Moore G.H.: Leading Indicators for the 1990s, Homewood, (Dl.), Dow Jones-Irwing, 1989.

    Google Scholar 

  54. Moore G.H. — Shiskin J.: Indicators of Business Expansion and Contractions, NBER, 1967.

    Google Scholar 

  55. Moore G.H. — Zarnowitz V.: «The Development and the Role of the National Bureau’s Business Cycle Chronologies», NBER, Working Paper, n. 1394, 1984.

    Google Scholar 

  56. Neftci S.: «A Time Series for the Study of Leading Indicators», in Lahiri K. — Moore G.H. (eds.): Leading Economic Indicators, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1991.

    Google Scholar 

  57. Neftci S.: «Lead Lag Relations, Exogeneity and Prediction of Economic Time Series», Econometrica, n. 47, 1979.

    Google Scholar 

  58. Neftci S.: «Optimal Prediction of Cyclical Downturns», Journal of Economics Dynamic and Control, n. 4, 1982.

    Google Scholar 

  59. Nelson C.R. - Plosser C.I.: «Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Evidence and Implications», Journal of Monetary Economics, n. 10, 1982.

    Google Scholar 

  60. Oecd: «OECD Leading Indicators and Business Cycles in Member Countries 1960–1985», Sources and Methods, n. 39, 1987.

    Google Scholar 

  61. Onofri P.:«Osservazione empirica e analisi economica: esperienze di indagine sulle fluttuazioni economiche», paper presented at: Giornate di studio su crisi delia teoria e degli indicatori, Giardini Naxos, 24–25 ott. 1991.

    Google Scholar 

  62. Passamonti L.: «Analisi ciclica e indicatori ciclici», IBM, Rassegna economica, n. 1, 1988.

    Google Scholar 

  63. Sargent T.: Dynamic Macroeconomic Theory, Harvard, Harvard University Press, 1987.

    Google Scholar 

  64. Sargent T. - Sims C: «Business Cycle Modelling without Pretending to Have Too Much a Priori Economic Theory», in Sims C: New Methods in Business Cycle Research, Minneapolis, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, 1977.

    Google Scholar 

  65. Schlitzer G.: L’approccio degli indicatori ciclici all’analisi della congiuntura: un’applicazione, Roma, Banca d’Italia, lavoro preparatorio per la relazione del Governatore, 1992.

    Google Scholar 

  66. Singleton K.: «A Latent Time Series Model of the Cyclical Behavior of Interest Rates», International Economic Review, n. 21, 1980.

    Google Scholar 

  67. Stock J.H. - Watson M.W.: «Variable Trends in Economic Time Series», Journal of Economic Perspective, n. 3, 1988.

    Google Scholar 

  68. Singleton K.: «Interpreting the Evidence on Money-Income Causality», Journal of Econometrics, n. 40, 1989.

    Google Scholar 

  69. Singleton K.: «A Probability Model of the Coincident Economic Indicators», in Lahiri K. -Moore G.H. leading Economic Indicators, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1991.

    Google Scholar 

  70. Singleton K.: «New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators», NBER, Macroeconomics Annual, 1989.

    Google Scholar 

  71. Vining R.: «Methodological Issues in Quantitative Economics — Koopmans on the Choice of Variables to be Studied and the Method of Measurement», Cowles Commision for Research in Economics, The University of Chicago, 1949; Italian translation in ISCO, Rassegna della letteratura sui cicli economici, n. 2, 1962.

    Google Scholar 

  72. Watson M.W.: «Univariate Detrending Methods with Stochastic Trends», Journal of Monetary Economics, n. 18, 1986.

    Google Scholar 

  73. Watson M.W.: «Using Econometric Models to Predict Recessions», Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Economic Perspective, November-December 1991.

    Google Scholar 

  74. Webb R.: «On Predicting the Stage of the Business Cycle», in Lahiri K. — Moore G.H. (eds.): Leading Economic Indicators, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1991.

    Google Scholar 

  75. Webb R.: «Toward More Accurate Forecats from Vector Autoregressions», Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Economic Review, n. 71, 1985.

    Google Scholar 

  76. Zarnowitz V.: «The Regularity of Business Cycles», NBER, Working Paper, n. 2381, 1987.

    Google Scholar 

  77. Zarnowitz V. - Boschan C: «Cyclical Indicators: An Evaluation and New Leading Indexes», Business Conditions Digest, n. V-X, May 1975.

    Google Scholar 

  78. Zarnowitz V. - Braun P.: «Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes: Some Estimates of their Interrelations», NBER, Working Paper, n. 2812, 1989.

    Google Scholar 

  79. Zarnowitz V. - Moore G.H.: «Sequential Signals of Recession and Recovery», Journal of Business, n. 1, 1982.

    Google Scholar 

  80. Zarnowitz V. - Moore G.H.: «Forecasting Recession under the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Law», in Lahiri K. — Moore G.H. (eds.): Leading Economic Indicators, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1991.

    Google Scholar 

  81. Zellner A.: «Bayesian Estimation and Prediction Using Asymmetric Loss Function», Journal of the American Statistical Association, n. 81, 1986.

    Google Scholar 

  82. Zellner A. - Hong C: «Bayesian Methods for Forecasting Turning Points in Economic Time-Series: Sensitivity of Forecasts to Asymmetry of Loss Structures», in Lahiri K. — Moore G.H. (eds): Leading Economic Indicators, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1991.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Confindustria, Roma, Italy

    Paolo Annunziato

Authors
  1. Paolo Annunziato
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. University of Rome ‘La Sapienza’, Italy

    Mario Baldassarri (Professor of Economics) (Professor of Economics)

  2. Research Department of Confindustria, Rome, Italy

    Paolo Annunziato

Copyright information

© 1994 SIPI Servizio Italiano Pubblicazioni Internazionali Srl

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Annunziato, P. (1994). The Use of Cyclical Indicators in Business Cycle Analysis. In: Baldassarri, M., Annunziato, P. (eds) Is the Economic Cycle Still Alive?. Central Issues in Contemporary Economic Theory and Policy. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-23183-6_6

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation