Forecasting the 1992 French Referendum

Abstract

This short paper presents a preliminary report on results of work on the 20 September 1992 French national referendum carried out in relation to the Maastricht Treaty. The research employed different analytical procedures than those usually used to explore the dynamics of electoral decisions and/or to forecast electoral outcomes. It was an attempt to extend the utilisation of expected utility models, proven successful in modelling governmental and business decisions in situations where direct intervention of mass publics was not a factor, to elections or referenda, where mass publics are the final arbiter of how a decision will turn out.