Abstract
This chapter presents a general description of an actuarial model that has been developed as a means of predicting the future spread of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa, and to estimate the demographic impact of that epidemic. It provides a detailed description of the fundamental approach to the model, its structure, and the key assumptions used in building the model. In addition, this chapter aims to illustrate the application of the model in developing scenarios for the HIV epidemic in South Africa. Two specific scenarios are presented, and are used to illustrate certain issues of fundamental importance in understanding the dynamics of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa.
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© 1993 Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited
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Doyle, P. (1993). The Demographic Impact of AIDS on the South African Population. In: Cross, S., Whiteside, A. (eds) Facing up to AIDS. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-22597-2_5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-22597-2_5
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