Testing Long Waves in Price and Volume Series from Sixteen Countries

  • Hans J. Gerster


In the wake of the economic problems of Western countries which have persisted since the mid-1970s, the long-wave hypothesis has regained increasing significance as an interpretation of long-run economic development. During the 1950s and 1960s long cyclical movements in capitalist economies played only a minor role in economics. Yet, when the growth trend broke in the 1970s, and phases of negative growth followed, the confidence with which the economists had explained growth cycles as a new form of business fluctuations had gone. The (old) business cycle was back. After more than twenty years of more-or-less sustained growth during the 1950s and 1960s, and a prolonged phase of relative stagnation, it is necessary to extend our research perspective beyond the time frame of the business cycle.


Business Cycle Cycle Length Polynomial Degree Frequency Response Function Trend Component 
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Copyright information

© Alfred Kleinknecht, Ernest Mandel and Immanuel Wallerstein 1992

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  • Hans J. Gerster

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