Modelling the Financial Markets: Empirical Findings
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The theoretical analysis of the last chapter will now be employed to estimate the structure of the financial markets. Portfolio-balance models are specified and estimated for six European economies: Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and the United Kingdom. The financial sector of the last-named country has so many institutional characteristics, as well as specific data requirements, that we found it necessary to treat it separately. In fact, the UK model is presented in Section VI. For the other five countries we employ, instead, a common framework, discussed in Section II. Section III tackles the problems of exchange rate modelling and exchange rate expectations; Section IV, estimation methods; Section V, the findings for the five European countries and Section VII the simulation and tracking performance of the models.
KeywordsExchange Rate Interest Rate Foreign Asset Current Account Balance Domestic Asset
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