Fluctuations in Global Economy: Income, Debt and Terms of Trade Processes

  • Amiya Kumar Bagchi


From the 1850s until now, the global economy has undergone several long stretches (spanning at least 7–8 years each, that is, the length of the so-called Juglar cycle) of expansion and contraction. In the phases of contraction or expansion, the fates of a number of countries have been exceptions to those of the majority of economies. The exceptions, especially in periods of contraction, have often been the trend-setters and have often framed new rules of the game. Thus, for example, during the so-called Great Depression starting in the 1870s, Germany and the US began to forge ahead as the trend-setters for the whole capitalist world (see, for example Saul, 1969). Similarly, during the other great depression of the 1930s, Japan, the Soviet Union and many less developed countries of Latin America adopted various measures of government intervention, including central planning and were able to escape the severe drop in employment and income that characterised the UK or Germany.


International Monetary Fund Reserve Currency Primary Commodity Bretton Wood System Unequal Exchange 
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  • Amiya Kumar Bagchi

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