Advertisement

Fluctuations in Global Economy: Income, Debt and Terms of Trade Processes

  • Amiya Kumar Bagchi

Abstract

From the 1850s until now, the global economy has undergone several long stretches (spanning at least 7–8 years each, that is, the length of the so-called Juglar cycle) of expansion and contraction. In the phases of contraction or expansion, the fates of a number of countries have been exceptions to those of the majority of economies. The exceptions, especially in periods of contraction, have often been the trend-setters and have often framed new rules of the game. Thus, for example, during the so-called Great Depression starting in the 1870s, Germany and the US began to forge ahead as the trend-setters for the whole capitalist world (see, for example Saul, 1969). Similarly, during the other great depression of the 1930s, Japan, the Soviet Union and many less developed countries of Latin America adopted various measures of government intervention, including central planning and were able to escape the severe drop in employment and income that characterised the UK or Germany.

Keywords

International Monetary Fund Reserve Currency Primary Commodity Bretton Wood System Unequal Exchange 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Ardeni, P. G. and Wright, G. (1992) ‘The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis, a Reappraisal Independent of Stationarity Hypothesis’, Economic Journal, vol. 102, pp. 803–12.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Bagchi, A. K. (1979) ‘The Great Depression and the Third World with Special Reference to India’, Social Science Information, vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 197–218.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bagchi, A. K. (1990) ‘The IMF View of International Economic Policy and the Relevance of Sraffa’s Critique of Economic Theory’, in K. Bharadwaj and B. Schefold (eds) Essays on Piero Sraffa: Critical Perspectives on the Revival of Classical Theory (Delhi: Oxford University Press), pp. 494–515.Google Scholar
  4. Bagchi, A. K. (1992a) On the Political Economy of the Choice of a Trade Regime (Brighton: Institute of Development Studies).Google Scholar
  5. Bagchi, A. K. (1992b) ‘Transnational Banks, U.S. Power Game and Global Impoverishment’, Economic and Political Weekly, vol. XXVII, no. 2, pp. 1133–6.Google Scholar
  6. Beckerman, W. and Jenkinson, T. (1986) ‘What Stopped the Inflation? Unemployment or Commodity Prices?’, Economic Journal, vol. 96, pp. 39–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Bernanke, B. S. (1983) ‘Non-monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression’, American Economic Review, vol. 73, pp. 257–76.Google Scholar
  8. Bharadwaj, K. (1986) ‘A Note on Emmanuel’s “Unequal Exchange”’, in P. Patnaik (ed.) Lenin and Imperialism: An Appraisal of Theories and Contemporary Reality (Delhi: Orient Longman), pp. 353–74.Google Scholar
  9. Bigg, R. J. (1987) ‘Ralph George Hawtrey (1879–1975)’, in J. Eatwell, M. Milgate and P. Newman (eds), The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, vol. 2 (London: Macmillan), pp. 605–9.Google Scholar
  10. Blinder, A. S. (1987) ‘Credit Rationing and Effective Supply Failures’, Economic Journal, vol. 97, pp. 327–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Blinder, A. S. and Stiglitz, J. E. (1983) ‘Money, Credit Constraints and Economic Activity’, America Economic Review, vol. 73, no. 2, pp. 297–302.Google Scholar
  12. Brewer, A. (1980) Marxist Theories of Imperialism (London: Routledge and Kegan Paul).Google Scholar
  13. Chandra, N. K. (1986) ‘Theories of Unequal Exchange: a Critique of Emmanuel and Amin’, Economic and Political Weekly, vol. 26; pp. PE77–PE84 reprinted in Chandra, N. K. (1988) Retarded Economies (Bombay: Oxford University Press), pp. 128–54.Google Scholar
  14. Chipman, J. S. (1951) The Theory of Intersectoral Money Flows and Income Formation (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press).Google Scholar
  15. Clarke, P. (1988) The Keynesian Revolution in the Making, 1924–1936 (Oxford: Clarendon Press).Google Scholar
  16. Corbett, J. (1990) ‘Comment’ on R. A. Feldman: ‘The Future of Japanese Banking’, in C. A. E. Goodhart and G. Sutija (eds) Japanese Financial Growth (New York: New York University Press), pp. 27–32.Google Scholar
  17. Cuddington, J. T. and Urzua, C. M. (1989) ‘Trends and Cycles in the Net Barter Terms of Trade’, Economic Journal, vol. 99, pp. 426–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Currie, D. (1993) ‘International Co-operation in Monetary Policy: Has it a Future?’, Economic Journal, vol. 103, pp. 178–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Darity, W., Jr (1987) ‘Debt, Finance, Production and Trade in a North-South Model’, Cambridge Journal of Economics, vol. 11, no. 3, pp. 211–28.Google Scholar
  20. Dick, T. J. O. and Floyd, J. E. (1991) ‘Balance of Payments Adjustment Under the International Gold Standard: Canada, 1871–1913’, Explorations in Economic History, vol. 28, no. 2, pp. 209–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Dobb, M. (1946) Studies in the Development of Capitalism (London: Routledge and Kegan Paul).Google Scholar
  22. Dornbusch, R. and Fischer, S. (1990) Macroeconomics, fifth edn (New York: McGraw-Hill).Google Scholar
  23. Drummond, I. M. (1991) ‘Why Canadian Banks did not Collapse in the 1930s’, in H. James, H. Lindgren and A. Teichova (eds) The Role of Banks in the Interwar Economy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), pp. 232–50.Google Scholar
  24. Eatwell, J., Milgate, M. and Newman, P. (eds) (1987) The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, vols 1–4 (London: Macmillan).Google Scholar
  25. Eichengreen, B. (ed.) (1985) The Gold Standard in Theory and History (London: Methuen).Google Scholar
  26. Eichengreen, B. and Portes, R. (1987) ‘The Anatomy of Financial Crises’, in R. Portes and A. K. Swoboda (eds) Threats to International Financial Stability (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), pp. 10–58.Google Scholar
  27. Emmanuel, A. (1972) Unequal Exchange, a Study of the Imperialism of Trade (London: New Left Books).Google Scholar
  28. Fischer, S. (1988) ‘Recent Developments in Macroeconomics’, Economic Journal, vol. 98, pp. 294–339.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Fisher, I. (1932) Booms and Depressions (New York: Adelphi).Google Scholar
  30. Fisher, I. (1993) ‘The Debt-deflation Theory of Great Depressions’, Econometrica, vol. 1. no. 4, pp. 337–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Ford, A. G. (1960) ‘Notes on the Working of the Gold Standard Before 1914’, Oxford Economic Papers. Reprinted in Eichengreen (ed.) 1985, pp. 141–65.Google Scholar
  32. Gertler, M. (1988) ‘Financial Structure and Aggregate Economic Activity: an Overview’, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 20, no. 3, pp. 559–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Gilbert, C. L. (1989) ‘The Impact of Exchange Rates and Developing Country Debt on Commodity Prices’, Economic Journal, vol. 99, pp. 773–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Goodwin, R. M. (1949) ‘The Multiplier as Matrix’, Economic Journal, vol. 59.Google Scholar
  35. Goodwin, R. M. (1980) ‘The World Matrix Multiplier’, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics. Reprinted with modifications in Goodwin, 1983, pp. 30–56.Google Scholar
  36. Goodwin, R. M. (1983) Essays in Linear Economic Structure (London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
  37. Greenspan, A. (1988) ‘Prospects for International Co-operation’, in M. Feldstein (ed.) International Economic Cooperation (Chicago: University of Chicago Press), pp. 61–5.Google Scholar
  38. Grubb, D. (1986) ‘Topics in the OECD Phillips Curve’, Economic Journal, vol. 96, pp. 55–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Gulati, I. S. (1980) International Monetary Development and the Third World: a Proposal to Redress the Balance (Calcutta: Orient Longman).Google Scholar
  40. Harrod, R. F. (1933) International Economics (London: James Nisbet).Google Scholar
  41. Harrod, R. F. (1951) The Life of John Maynard Keynes (London: Macmillan).Google Scholar
  42. Haubrich, J. G. (1990) ‘Non-monetary Effects of Financial Crises: Lessons from the Great Depression in Canada’, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 25, no. 2, pp. 223–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Hawtrey, R. G. (1913) Good and Bad Trade (London: Longmans).Google Scholar
  44. Hawtrey, R. G. (1919) Currency and Credit (London: Longmans).Google Scholar
  45. Hawtrey, R. G. (1928) Trade and Credit (London: Longmans).Google Scholar
  46. Hicks, J. (1965) Capital and Growth (Oxford: Oxford University Press).Google Scholar
  47. Jaffee, D. and Russell, T. (1976) ‘Imperfect Competition and Credit Rationing’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 90, pp. 651–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Keynes, J. M. (1980a) The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, vol. XXV, Activities 1940–44, Shaping the Postwar World, The Clearing Union, D. Moggridge (ed.) (London: Macmillan for the Royal Economic Society).Google Scholar
  49. Keynes, J. M. (1980b) The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, vol. XXVI, Activities 1941–46, Shaping the Postwar World, Bretton Woods and Reparations, D. Moggridge (ed.) (London: Macmillan).Google Scholar
  50. Kahn, R. F. (1931) ‘The Relation of Home Investment to Unemployment’, Economic Journal, vol. 41. pp. 173–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Kahn, R. F. (1954) ‘Some Notes on Liquidity Preference’, Manchester School pp. 229–57.Google Scholar
  52. Kahn, R. (1984) The Making of Keynes’ General Theory (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).Google Scholar
  53. Kaldor, N. (1963) ‘Stabilising the Terms of Trade of Underdeveloped Countries’, Economic Bulletin for Latin America. Reprinted in Kaldor, 1964, pp. 112–30.Google Scholar
  54. Kaldor, N. (1964) Essays on Economic Policy, vol. II (London: Duckworth).Google Scholar
  55. Kaldor, N. (1976) ‘Inflation and Recession in the World Economy’, Economic Journal, vol. 86, pp. 703–14.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Kalecki, M. (1954) Theory of Economic Dynamics (London: Allen & Unwin).Google Scholar
  57. Kalecki, M. (1968) ‘Trend and the Business Cycle’, Economic Journal, vol. 78, pp. 263–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Keynes, J. M. (1913) Indian Currency and Finance (London: Macmillan).Google Scholar
  59. Keynes, J. M. (1923) A Tract on Monetary Reform (London: Macmillan): reprinted in The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, vol. IV (London, Macmillan, 1971).Google Scholar
  60. Keynes, J. M. (1930) A Treatise on Money, vol. 2 (London: Macmillan).Google Scholar
  61. Keynes J. M. (1936) A General Theory of Employment, Output and Prices (London: Macmillan).Google Scholar
  62. Keynes, J. M. (1938) The Policy of Government Storage of Foodstuffs and Raw Materials’, Economic Journal, vol. 48, pp. 449–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Konig, W. (1973) ‘International Financial Institutions and Latin American Development’, in V. L. Urquidi and R. Thorp (eds) Latin America in the International Economy (London: Macmillan), pp. 116–68.Google Scholar
  64. Kunz, D. B. (1991) ‘American Bankers and Britain’s Fall from Gold’ in H. James, H. Lindgren and A. Teichova (eds) The Role of Banks in the Interwar Economy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), pp. 35–48.Google Scholar
  65. Kuznets, S. (1971) Economic Growth of Nations: Total Output and Production Structure (Cambridge, Mass: Harvard University Press).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Lewis, W. A. (1978) The Evolution of the International Economic Order (Princeton: Princeton University Press).Google Scholar
  67. Luxemburg, R. (1963) The Accumulation of Capital (London: Routledge & Kegan Paul).Google Scholar
  68. Mankiw, N. (1986) ‘The Allocation of Credit and Financial Collapse’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 101, no. 3, pp. 455–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. Marcel, M. and Palma, J. G. (1988) ‘Third World Debt and its Effect on the British Economy: a Southern View of Economic Mismanagement in the North’, Cambridge Journal of Economics, vol. 12, no. 3 pp. 361–400.Google Scholar
  70. Marx, K. (1867) Capital: a Critique of Political Economy, translated from the German by Ben Fowkes (Harmondsworth, Middlesex: Penguin Books, 1976).Google Scholar
  71. Metzler, L. A. (1942) ‘Underemployment Equilibrium in International Trade’, Econometrica, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 97–112.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  72. Metzler, L. A. (1950) ‘A Multiple Region Theory of Income and Trade’, Econometrica, vol. 18, no. 4, pp. 329–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  73. Minsky, H. (1975) John Maynard Keynes (New York: Columbia Press).Google Scholar
  74. Moggridge, D. (1980) Keynes, 2nd edn (London: Macmillan).Google Scholar
  75. Mullins, M. and Wadhwani, S. (1989) ‘The Effect of the Stock Market on Investment: a Comparative Study’, European Economic Review, vol. 33, pp. 939–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  76. Nurkse, R. (1961) Patterns of Trade and Development (Oxford: Blackwell).Google Scholar
  77. Okun, A. (1981) Prices and Quantities (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution).Google Scholar
  78. Park, S. (1991) ‘Bank Failure Contagion in Historical Perspective’, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 28, no. 2, pp. 271–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  79. Putnam, R. D. and Henning, C. R. (1987) ‘The Bonn Summit of 1978: How Does International Policy Coordination Actually Work?’, Brookings Discussion Papers in International Economics, No. 53.Google Scholar
  80. Redish, A. (1990) ‘Monetary Lessons from Canada: a Review Essay’, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 26, no. 3, pp. 489–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  81. Rich, G. (1988) The Cross of Gold: Money and the Canadian Business Cycles 1867–1913 (Ottawa: Carleton University Press).Google Scholar
  82. Robinson, J. (1947) ‘Beggar-my-neighbour Remedies for Unemployment’, in J. Robinson (ed.) Essays on Theory of Employment, 2nd edn (Oxford: Blackwell).Google Scholar
  83. Rybczynski, T. (1987) ‘Discussion of Eichengreen and Portes, 1987’, in R. Portes and A. K. Swoboda (eds) Threats to International Financial Stability (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), pp. 61–6.Google Scholar
  84. Sapsford, D. (1985) ‘The Statistical Debate on the Net Barter Terms of Trade Between Primary Commodities and Manufactures: a Comment and Some Additional Evidence’, Economic Journal, vol. 95, pp. 781–8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  85. Sapsford, D., Sarkar, P. and Singer, H. W. (1992) ‘The Prebisch-Singer Terms of Trade Controversy Revised’, Journal of International Development, vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 315–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  86. Sarkar, P. (1986) ‘The Singer-Prebisch Hypothesis: a Statistical Evaluation’, Cambridge Journal of Economics, vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 355–71.Google Scholar
  87. Sarkar, P. (1991) ‘Debt Crisis of the Less Developed Countries and the Transfer Debate Once Again’, The Journal of Development Studies, vol. 27, no. 4, pp. 84–101.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  88. Sarkar, P. and Singer H. W. (1991) ‘Manufactured Exports of Developing Countries and Their Terms of Trade Since 1965’, World Development, vol. 19, no. 4, pp. 333–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  89. Saul, S. B. (1969) The Myth of the Great Depression 1873–1896 (London: Methuen).Google Scholar
  90. Sayers, R. S. (1976) The Bank of England 1891–1944, vol. 2 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).Google Scholar
  91. Sen, S. (1991) ‘Swings and Paradoxes in International Trade: a Theoretical Note’, Cambridge Journal of Economics, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 179–98.Google Scholar
  92. Singer, H. W. (1987) ‘Terms of Trade and Economic Development’, in J. Eatwell, M. Milgate and P. Newman (eds) The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, vol. 4 (London: Macmillan), pp. 626–8.Google Scholar
  93. Skidelsky, R. (1988) John Maynard Keynes, vol. 2, The Economist as Prince 1920–1937 (London: Macmillan).Google Scholar
  94. Stiglitz, J. E. and Weiss, A. (1981) ‘Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information’, American Economic Review, vol. 71, no. 3, pp. 393–410.Google Scholar
  95. Thirlwall, A. P. (1987) Nicholas Kaldor (Brighton: Wheatsheaf Books).Google Scholar
  96. Townsend, R. M. (1979) ‘Optimal Contracts and Competitive Markets with Costly State Verification’, Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 21, pp. 265–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  97. Triffin, R. (1969) ‘The Myth and Realities of the Socalled Gold Standard’, in R. N. Cooper (ed.) International Finance (Harmondsworth, Middlesex: Penguin Books), pp. 38–61.Google Scholar
  98. UNCTAD (1964) The Case for an International Commodity Reserve Currency, A. G. Hart, N. Kaldor and J. Tinbergen (eds) (Geneva: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development).Google Scholar
  99. UNCTAD (1976) Trade and Development Report (Geneva).Google Scholar
  100. Veblen, T. (1904) Theory of Business Enterprise (New York: Charles Scribrier’s Sons).Google Scholar
  101. Weber, F. (1991) ‘Universal Banking in Interwar Central Europe’, in H. James, H. Lindgren and A. Teichova (eds) The Role of Banks in the Interwar Economy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), pp. 19–25.Google Scholar
  102. Whale P. B. (1937) ‘The Working of the Prewar Gold Standard’, Economica. Reprinted in Eichengreen (ed.) 1985, pp. 49–61.Google Scholar
  103. Williamson, J. (1981) ‘Review of JMK, 1980a and 1980b’, Economic Journal, vol. 91, pp. 541–4.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited 1996

Authors and Affiliations

  • Amiya Kumar Bagchi

There are no affiliations available

Personalised recommendations