Modelling and Forecasting in Commercial Property

Abstract

The application of computers in commercial property is now widespread. Their range of use includes the compilation of databases recording the basic details of properties held, accounting functions, the management of proper-ties, investment performance appraisal and strategic policy and other analytical studies at the portfolio level. Systems range from the personal desktop computers (PCs) through to mainframe/mini hardware requiring specialist support. The purpose of this chapter is to take an overview of modelling and forecasting and look at the application of PCs in commercial property forecasting. There has been a growing awareness of the importance of formally modelling and forecasting in the property sector. Although it is increasingly recognised that modelling and forecasting is now an ingredient in the property research effort, as attested, for example, in a recent series of seminars on forecasting organised by the Society of Property Researchers, a substantial gulf between property practitioner and forecaster remains.