Western Threat Perceptions and Soviet Military Doctrine

Abstract

After four decades of a militarised Cold War and a decade of military buildup, the question, ‘Where has the threat gone?’ (A gde zhe ugroza?), seems both appropriate and timely. Only three years ago, when the author first addressed this issue, the problem was to understand the connections between the political and ideological aspects of the East-West competition and the process of militarisation, to evaluate the prospects offered by arms control, dialogue, and confidence-building measures to reduce tensions and to speculate on methods of demilitarising that Cold War.¹ Although the arsenals and forces still exist, the profound political changes of the last several years have fundamentally recast the East-West relationship and ushered in a new era. While it is usually the historian’s task to question the distant past about causes and consequences — the issues of who or what caused the Cold War come to mind — the more challenging task now is to win the peace. These reflections on Western threat perception and Soviet military doctrine are offered to that end.