Advertisement

The Future of the Fourth World: Choices and Constraints on the Very Poor in the 1980s

  • Timothy Shaw M
Part of the Macmillan International Political Economy Series book series (IPES)

Abstract

. . the most fundamental assumptions underlying a significant improvement in sub-Saharan economic prospects are unrealistic. The implication is for a continuation of economic stagnation and human misery, recurrent crises and stopgap measures.’— Christine A. Bogdanowicz-Bindert ‘Sub-Saharan Africa: an agenda for action’1

’The African continent is more drastically affected egative achievements of the than the other regions of the world by the development strategies adopted by most countries whose failure, aggravated by the social crises which the industrialized countries are currently undergoing, hardly needs emphasizing . . . [A] new pedagogy geared to African unity is necessary if the concept of development based on collective autonomy and on the African people’s own values is to be a realistic proposition.’ —Africa towards the year 2000’2

’Africa is unable to point to any significant growth rate, or satisfactory index of general well-being, in the past 20 years. Faced with this situation, and determined to undertake measures for the basic restructuring of the economic base of our continent, we resolved to adopt a far-reaching, regional approach based primarily on collective self-reliance.’— Organization of African Unity (OAU) Lagos Plan of Action for the Economic Development of Africa, 1980-2000 3

’The deep recession in the industrialized world has plunged the Black African economies into a depression that will increase starvation and social unrest. With demand for primary commodities depressed, even nations that were regarded as success stories in the late 1970s - resource-rich economies such as the Ivory Coast, Kenya, and Nigeria - are now sinking fast. The oil importers, of course, are suffering the most ...[their] per capita growth is expected to be negative for this decade, after dropping to 1.7 per cent per year in the 1970s from 3.7 per cent in the decade of the 1960s.’ — Tetteh A. Kofi, ‘Black Africa: bleak prospects and rising unresti4

The African crisis of relative and absolute underdevelopment inten-sified as the symbolic centenary of the Treaty of Berlin approached in the early 1980s: Africa has become more peripheral and marginal than ever before, with profound implications for development theory and national strategy as well as for economic revival and personal survival. The ecological devastation and social deprivation which much of the continent has endured during the last decade — the post-Bretton Woods era of oil shocks and Northern stagflation — is symptomatic of exponential structural changes and challenges.5 These centre on the new division of post-independence Africa into ‘third’ (middling rich) and ‘fourth’ (chronically poor) worlds. As a recent OECD report recognises, differentiation within the ‘third world’ now poses a major challenge for policy (and for theory):

Keywords

Political Economy Ivory Coast International Division Primary Commodity Fourth World 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Notes

  1. 1.
    Christine A. Bodganowicz-Bindert, ‘Sub-Saharan Africa: an agenda for action’, Journal of World Trade Law 16(4) July—August 1982, 286. Emphasis added.Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    ‘Africa towards the year 2000: final report on the joint OAU/ECA symposium on the future development of Africa’, Appendix C in Ti-mothy M. Shaw (ed.), Alternative Futures for Africa (Boulder: West-view, 1982) p. 330 and 333. Emphasis added.Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    OAU Lagos Plan of Action for the Economic Development of Africa, 1980–2000 (Geneva: International Institute for Labour Studies, 1981) 5. Emphasis added.Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    Tetteh A. Kofi, ‘Black Africa: bleak prospects and rising unrest’, Business Week, 1 November 1982, p. 122.Google Scholar
  5. 5.
    See Steven Langdon and Lynn K. Mytelka, ‘Africa in the changing world economy’, in Colin Legum et al., Africa in the 1980s: a continent in crisis (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1979) pp. 123–211.Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    Rutherford M. Poats, ‘Development in perspective’, OECD Observer 119, November 1982, p. 22. Emphasis added. See also David F. Lomax, ‘The oil-finance cycle revisited’, National Westminster Bank Quarterly Review, November 1982, pp. 10, 14 and 15.Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    On the inevitable failure of these, see Timothy M. Shaw, ‘Towards a political economy of the OAU and the Arab League: collaboration, conflict or contradiction?’, in Dunstan M. Wai et al. (eds), Africa and the Arab Middle East: relations in perspective (forthcoming).Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    See Bahgat Korany, ‘Hierarchy within the South: in search of theory’, Third World Affairs 1986 (London: Third World Foundation, 1986) pp. 85–100; and ‘Now thrive Popeye’ The Economist 286(7274) 29 January 1983, pp. 11–12.Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    For the attempt to do this, see Timothy M. Shaw, Towards a Political Economy of Africa: the dialectics of dependence (London: Macmillan, 1985).Google Scholar
  10. 10.
    IMF, World Economic Outlook: a survey by the staff of the IMF (Washington, 1982 Occasional Paper Number 9) pp. 23 and 26. Emphasis added.Google Scholar
  11. 11.
    See Ali A. Mazrui’s cautionary, if melodramatic and enigmatic, 1979 Reith Lectures for the BBC: The African Condition (London: Heine-mann, 1980).Google Scholar
  12. 12.
    For comparisons of these two prognostications and proposals see Caro-line Allison and Reginald Green (eds), ‘Accelerated development in sub-Saharan Africa: what agendas for action?’, IDS Bulletin, January 1983; ‘A special double issue on the Berg Report and the Lagos Plan of Action’, Africa Development 7(1/2) January/June 1982; Charles Harvey, ‘Accelerated development in sub-Saharan Africa: review article’, in Colin Legum (ed.), Africa Contemporary Record: annual survey of events and documents, Volume 14, 1981–82 (New York: Africana, 1982); ‘What the World Bank didn’t say’, Africa News 18(19) 10 May 1982, pp. 2, 3 and 11; and Timothy M. Shaw, ‘OAU: the forgotten economic debate’, West Africa 3375, 12 April 1982, pp. 983–4 and ‘Debates about Africa’s future: the Brandt, World Bank and Lagos Plan blueprints’, Third World Quarterly 5(2) April 1983, pp. 330 44, reprinted in Toivo Miljan (ed.) The Political Economy of North—South Relations (Peterborough: Broad-view, 1987) pp. 501–11.Google Scholar
  13. 13.
    On the prospects for repression rather than revolution, at least in the short term, see Claude Ake, A Political Economy for Africa (London: Longman, 1981) pp. 176–89 and Richard Sandbrook, The Politics ofBasic Needs (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1982) pp. 182–246.Google Scholar
  14. 14.
    For a succinct overview of current trends, economic and policy, see, ‘Africa’s economic crisis’, North-South Institute Briefing 6, February 1983. See also Richard Sandbrook, The Politics of Africa’s Economic Stagnation (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1985) and John Ravenhill (ed.) Africa in Economic Crisis (London: Macmillan, 1986).Google Scholar
  15. 15.
    Ronald H. Chilcote, ‘Preface’ in his collection on Dependence and Marxism: towards a resolution of the debate (Boulder: Westview, 1982) p. x.Google Scholar
  16. 16.
    Ronald H. Chilcote, ‘Issues of Theory in Dependence and Marxism’, ibid p. 15. See also Joel Samoff, ‘On class, paradigm and African politics’, Africa Today 29(2), Second Quarter 1982, pp. 41–50.Google Scholar
  17. 17.
    For a useful introduction to such novel differences, see Paul Hallwood and Stuart Sinclair, Oil, Debt and Development: OPEC in the Third World (London: George Allen & Unwin, 1981). See also Shaw, ‘Towards a political economy of the OAU and the Arab League’.Google Scholar
  18. 18.
    Fassil G. Kiros, ‘What is in a NIEO for the least developed countries of Africa?’, Africa Development 6(4) 1981, pp. 16–17.Google Scholar
  19. 19.
    For a recent defence of such an outward-looking strategy, albeit an idealistic one based on market forces and enlightened leadership, see Michael Roemer, ‘Economic development in Africa: performance since independence and a strategy for the future’, Daedalus 3(2) Spring 1982, pp. 125–48.Google Scholar
  20. 20.
    For a lament about the elusiveness of BHN in Nigeria despite the ‘petronaira’ boom, based on the ILO report on First Things First: meeting the Basic Needs of the people of Nigeria (Addis Ababa, 1980), see V. P. Diejomaoh, ‘Nigerian social science research priorities for development’, Afrika Spectrum 17(2) 1982, pp. 151–60.Google Scholar
  21. 21.
    On the roller-coaster of Nigeria’s political economy, see Julius O. Ihonvbere and Timothy M. Shaw, Nigeria: political economy at the (semi?) periphery (Aldershot: Gower, 1988).Google Scholar
  22. 22.
    See Ake, A Political Economy of Africa, pp. 180–4.Google Scholar
  23. 23.
    See Timothy M. Shaw, ‘The African crisis: debates and dialectics over alternative development strategies for the continent’, Alternatives 9(1) Spring/Summer 1983.Google Scholar
  24. 24.
    See Timothy M. Shaw, ‘Conclusion: African development and the new international division of Labour’ in Adebayo Adedeji and Timothy Shaw (eds) Economic Crisis in Africa: African perspectives on development problems and potentials (Boulder: Westview Press, 1985).Google Scholar
  25. 25.
    ‘Editorial: the untouched topic’, West Africa 3408, 29 November 1982, p. 3063.Google Scholar
  26. 26.
    See Cranford Pratt, ‘From Pearson to Brandt: evolving perceptions concerning international development’, International Journal 35(4) Au-tumn 1980, pp. 623–45.Google Scholar
  27. 27.
    Michael Tribe, ‘Critical reflections on the Brandt Commission report: a review article’, African Affairs 81(325), October 1982, p. 582.Google Scholar
  28. 28.
    On the revised Brandt position, Common Crisis, see ‘Brandt’s second coming’ and ‘Brandt follow-up: in search of finance’, West Africa 3419, 21 February 1983, pp. 455 and 466–7; and Michael Prest, Will Brandt’s new plan go the way of the first?’, The Times, Saturday 12 February 1983, p. 8.Google Scholar
  29. 29.
    For insights into the two shocks and the variety of African responses, see Willard R. Johnson and Ernest J. Wilson ‘The “oil crises” and African economies: oil wave on a tidal flood of industrial price inflation’, Daeda-lus 2(2) Spring 1982, pp. 222–4.Google Scholar
  30. 30.
    Adebayo Adedeji, ‘Development and economic growth in Africa to the year 2000: alternative projections and policies’, in Shaw (ed.), Alterna-tive Futures for Africa, pp. 280–1.Google Scholar
  31. 31.
    IMF World Economic Outlook: a survey by the staff of the IMF (Washington: 1982, Occasional Paper Number 9) p. 96.Google Scholar
  32. 32.
  33. 33.
    Adedeji, ‘Development and economic growth in Africa to the year 2000’, p. 301.Google Scholar
  34. 34.
    Adebayo Adedeji, ‘The deepening international crisis and its implications for Africa’ (Addis Ababa: ECA, April 1982) p. 8.Google Scholar
  35. 35.
    ‘Accelerated development in Sub-Saharan Africa: an assessment by OAU, ECA and ADB Secretariats’ (Council of Ministers, 38th Ordinary Session, Addis Ababa, 22 February to 1 March 1982. CM 1177 (xxxviii) Annex 1) p. 29.Google Scholar
  36. 36.
    Lagos Plan of Action, p. 5.Google Scholar
  37. 37.
    Accelerated Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: agenda for action (Washington: World Bank, 1981) p. 5.Google Scholar
  38. 38.
    Lagos Plan of Action p. 8.Google Scholar
  39. 39.
  40. 40.
    Adebayo Adedeji, ‘Address at the formal opening of the annual policy meeting of the Cooperation for Development in Africa conference, Washington, 26 October 1982’, p. 14. See also ECA and Africa’s Development, 1983–2008: a preliminary perspective study (Addis Ababa, April 1983).Google Scholar
  41. 41.
    David Wheeler, ‘Sources of stagnation in sub-Sahara Africa’ (Washington, DC; IBRD Africa Office, nd [1982]) p. 138.Google Scholar
  42. 42.
    Ibid., p. 30.Google Scholar
  43. 43.
    Ibid., p. 142. See also ‘Sub-Saharan Africa: progress report on development prospects and programs’ (Washington: World Bank, July 1983).Google Scholar
  44. 44.
    Ankie M. M. Hoogvelt, The Third World in Global Development (Lon-don: Macmillan, 1982) p. 214. See also Korany, ‘Hierarchy within the South’.Google Scholar
  45. 45.
    See Shaw, ‘Towards a political economy of the OAU and the Arab League’.Google Scholar
  46. 46.
    Bruce Andrews, ‘The political economy of world capitalism: theory and practice’, International Organization 36(1) Winter 1982, p. 159.Google Scholar
  47. 47.
    See Claude Ake, Revolutionary Pressures in Africa (London: Zed, 1978) pp. 92–94.Google Scholar
  48. 48.
    For a useful and comprehensive introduction to the problems of and prospects for industrialisation, with reference to salient cases, see Martin Fransman (ed.), Industry and Accumulation in Africa (London: Heine-mann, 1982).Google Scholar
  49. 49.
    Fred Nixson, ‘Import substituting industrialization’ in ibid., p. 38. On the ‘Warren’ debate about prospects for industry in the periphery, see Alain Lipietz ‘Towards global Fordism?’ and ‘Marx or Rostow?’, New Left Review 132, March-April 1982, pp. 33–58.Google Scholar
  50. 50.
    Poats, ‘Development in perspective’, p. 25.Google Scholar
  51. 51.
    Ibid., p. 23. See also Roemer, ‘Economic Development in Africa’.Google Scholar
  52. 52.
    See Johnson and Wilson, ‘The “oil crises” and African economies’.Google Scholar
  53. 53.
    Accelerated Development in Sub-Saharan Africa, p. 93.Google Scholar
  54. 54.
    Lagos Plan of Action, p. 19. See also, A Programme for the Industrial Development Decade for Africa prepared jointly by the ECA, OAU and UNIDO (Vienna: UNIDO, 1982).Google Scholar
  55. 55.
    ‘World Bank “stagnant and confused” says former director’, Africa Now 13, May 1982, p. 89.Google Scholar
  56. 56.
    On the calculatedness of ‘ideological’ shifts in Africa as the world system and external opportunities expand and contract, see Thandika Mkanda-wire, ‘African State responses to economic cycles and economic crises: a preliminary note’, African Studies Association, Washington, DC, November 1982.Google Scholar
  57. 57.
    ‘What the World Bank didn’t say’, Africa News 18(19) 10 May 1982, p. 11.Google Scholar
  58. 58.
    ‘Agenda for Action: valuable criticism’, West Africa, 3377, 28 April 1982, pp. 1132 and 1131.Google Scholar
  59. 59.
    Richard Sandbrook, ‘Is there hope for Africa?’, International Perspectives January/February 1983, p. 7; see also his The Politics of Africa’s Economic Stagnation. Google Scholar
  60. 60.
    On the analytic as well as economic implications of such changes see Henrik Secher Marcussen and Jens Erik Torp, Internationalization of Capital: prospects for the Third World (London: Zed, with Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, 1982); Hoogvelt, The Third World in Global Development; Lipietz, ‘Towards global Fordism?’ and ‘Marx or Rostow?’, and Korany ‘Hierarchy within the South’.Google Scholar
  61. 61.
    For a thoughtful and critical introduction to such divisions and definitions, see Robin Luckham, ‘Armaments, underdevelopment and demilitarization in Africa’, Alternatives 6(2) July 1980, pp. 179–245.Google Scholar
  62. 62.
    See Timothy M. Shaw, ‘Class, country and corporation: Africa in the capitalist world system’, in Donald I. Ray et al. (eds), Into the 80s: proceedings of the 11th annual conference of the Canadian Association of African Studies, Volume 2 (Vancouver: Tantalus, 1981) pp. 19–37 and Africa’s International Affairs: an analysis and bibliography (Halifax: Centre for Foreign Policy Studies, 1983).Google Scholar
  63. 63.
    For comparisons between development strategies see, inter alia, A.M. Babu, ‘Development Strategy - revolutionary style’, in his African Socialism or Socialist Africa? (London: Zed, 1981) pp. 144–64 and Timothy M. Shaw, ‘From dependence to self-reliance: Africa’s prospects for the next twenty years’, International Journal 35(4) Autumn 1980, pp. 821–44.Google Scholar
  64. 64.
    See Lagos Plan of Action, p. 128.Google Scholar
  65. 65.
    OAU, ‘Report of the Secretary-General on the World Bank Report’ (Council of Ministers, 38th Ordinary Session, Addis Ababa, 23 February to 1 March 1982) CM/1177 (xxxviii) Appendix ii, p. 3.Google Scholar
  66. 66.
    See ‘Africa towards the year 2000’. See also, What Kind of Africa by the Year 2000? (Geneva: International Institute for Labor Studies for OAU, 1979).Google Scholar
  67. 67.
    Allan Gotlieb and Jeremy Kinsman, ‘North—South or East—West?’, International Perspectives, January/February 1983, p. 28.Google Scholar
  68. 68.
    See Nigel Harris: The End of the Third World: NICs and the decline of an ideology (Harmondsworth, Pelican, 1987) and ‘World Business: after the OPEC decade’, The Economist, 289(7311) 15 October 1983, pp. 80–6.Google Scholar
  69. 69.
    See ECA and Africa’s Development, 19832008, pp. 2 and 96. 70. J.F. Ade Ajayi, ‘Expectations of independence’, Daedalus 3(2) Spring 1982, p. 8.Google Scholar
  70. 70.
    APPER (Addis Ababa: FAO for OAU, 1985), FAG (Washington: World Bank, 1985), UNPAAERD (New York: UN, 1986), UNCESA (New York: UN, 1987) and The Abuja Statement (Addis Ababa: OAU, ECA & ADB, 1987). See ‘Special Issue on SG’s African Report’,Africa Recovery 3, November 1987.Google Scholar
  71. 71.
    See Timothy M. Shaw and Jerker Carlsson, ‘Issues and Prospects in Cooperation between Africa and the International Community’, ECAI OAU/ADB Conference onAfrica: the challenge of economic recovery and accelerated development’ (Abuja, Nigeria, June 1987); cf. Ravi Gulhati, ‘Recent Economic Reforms in Africa: a preliminary political economy perspective’, EDI Policy Seminar Report Series, no. 8 (Washington, September 1987).Google Scholar
  72. 72.
    See Timothy M. Shaw, ‘Africa’s Conjuncture: from structural adjustment to self-reliance’, Third World Affairs 1988 (London: Third World Foundation, 1988).Google Scholar
  73. 73.
    See Timothy M. Shaw, ‘Alternative African Futures: debates, dynamics and dialectics’, 25th Anniversary Conference on African Futures, Centre of African Studies, Edinburgh University, Edinburgh, December 1987.Google Scholar
  74. 74.
    IFDA Dossier 54, July 1986, pp. 40–5. See also Naomi Chazan and Timothy M. Shaw (eds), Coping with Africa’s Food Crisis (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1988).Google Scholar
  75. 75.
    See Julius Nyang’oro and Timothy M. Shaw (eds), Corporatism in Africa (Boulder: Westview, 1989).Google Scholar
  76. 76.
    See Harris, The End of the Third World. See also Jerker Carlsson and Timothy M. Shaw (eds), NICs and the Political Economy of South—South Relations (London: Macmillan, 1988).Google Scholar
  77. 77.
    The Abuja Statement, pp. 12 and 13.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Dennis C. Pirages and Christine Sylvester 1990

Authors and Affiliations

  • Timothy Shaw M

There are no affiliations available

Personalised recommendations