Reliability Prediction and Modelling

Abstract

Reliability prediction is the process of calculating the anticipated system reliability from assumed component failure rates. It provides a quantitative measure of how close a design comes to meeting the design objectives and permits comparisons between different design proposals to be made. It has already been emphasised that reliability prediction is an imprecise calculation, but it is nevertheless a valuable exercise for the following reaons:

• It provides an early indication of a system’s potential to meet the design reliability requirements.

• It enables an assessment of life cycle costs to be carried out.

• It enables one to establish which components, or areas, in a design contribute to the major portion of the unreliability.

• It enables trade-offs to be made as, for example, between reliability and maintainability in achieving a given availability.