Pakistan’s technical progress toward some sort of atom bomb capability is now almost universally recognized.1 Questions remain about whether Pakistan has the intent or capacity to produce militarily serviceable nuclear devices, or even whether its reckoning is military at all. But few doubt that Pakistan is a nuclear threshhold state in some sense, or that its leaders wish to convey an impression that it is nuclear-weapon-capable in some fashion.2 If that impression is also consciously enigmatic, it may have some virtue for Pakistan partly because it invites the sort of speculation this chapter involves. And if the world believes Pakistan is nuclear-weapon-capable, that belief acquires a life of its own. Beliefs become facts in politics, and political facts have political consequences. The question of what are Pakistan’s nuclear options is, in part, a question about what Pakistan wishes to do with the political facts and what political consequences it hopes for.


Nuclear Weapon Spend Fuel Defense Policy Nuclear Proliferation Nuclear Device 
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  1. 1.
    Rodney W. Jones, The Proliferation of Small Nuclear Forces. Report for the Defense Nuclear Agency (Washington, DC: Georgetown University Center for Strategic and International Studies, 30 April 1984) pp. 22–23Google Scholar
  2. Leonard Spector, Nuclear Proliferation Today (New York: Random House, for the Carnegie Endownment for International Peace, 1984)Google Scholar
  3. Richard K. Betts, ‘India, Pakistan, and Iran’, in Joseph A. Yager (ed.) Nonproliferation and U.S. Foreign Policy (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 1980) chs 5–7.Google Scholar
  4. 2.
    For Indian recognition of the capability, see D. K. Palit and P. K. S. Namboodiri, Pakistan’s Islamic Bomb (New Delhi: Vikas Publishers, 1979)Google Scholar
  5. and P. B. Sinha and R. R. Subramanian, Nuclear Pakistan: Atomic Threat to South Asia (New Delhi: Vision Books, 1980).Google Scholar
  6. 3.
    Akhtar Ali, Pakistan’s Nuclear Dilemma (Karachi: Economist Research Unit, 1984)Google Scholar
  7. Zalmay Khalilzad, ‘Pakistan: The Making of a Nuclear Power’, Asian Survey, Vol XVI, No. 6, June 1976, pp. 580–592.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. 4.
    For more extensive discussion, see Rodney W. Jones, Small Nuclear Forces (New York: Praeger Publishers, The Washington Papers, No. 103, 1984), chs 2–3Google Scholar
  9. Rodney W. Jones, ‘Atomic Diplomacy in Developing Countries’, in John J. Stremlau (ed.) The Foreign Policy Priorities of Third World States (Boulder, Co: Westview Press, 1982) pp. 67–96.Google Scholar
  10. 5.
    For a rigorous discussion of motivations and incentives for proliferation and nonproliferation, see Stephen M. Meyer, The Dynamics of Nuclear Proliferation (Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1984).Google Scholar
  11. 6.
    Lewis A. Dunn, Controlling the Bomb: Nuclear Proliferation in the 1980s (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1982).Google Scholar
  12. 7.
    Shai Feldman, Israeli Nuclear Deterrence: A Strategy for the 1980s (New York: Columbia University Press, 1983)Google Scholar
  13. 10.
    For a somewhat sensational but plausibly detailed account, see Steve Weissman and Herbert Krosney, The Islamic Bomb (New York: Times Books, 1981).Google Scholar
  14. 11.
    Rodney W. Jones, Nuclear Proliferation: Islam, the Bomb, and South Asia (Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage Publications, The Washington Papers, No. 82, 1981), see pp. 29–32, especially note 19.Google Scholar
  15. 16.
    Jones, The Proliferation of Small Nuclear Forces, op. cit., pp. 22–23; Arnold Kramish, ‘The Bombs of Balnibarbi’, in Rodney W. Jones (ed.) Small Nuclear Forces and U.S. Security Policy: Threats and Potential Conflicts in the Middle East and South Asia (Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, 1984) chp. 2, especially pp. 27–29.Google Scholar
  16. Stephen P. Cohen, The Pakistan Army (Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1984).Google Scholar
  17. 20.
    See the traditional military view in Lt.-Gen. (retd.) M. Attiqur Rahman, Our Defence Cause (London: White Lion Publishers, 1976)Google Scholar
  18. and Bhutto’s autobiographical account in Z. A. Bhutto, If I am Assassinated … (Delhi: Vikas Publishers, 1979); also Weissman and Kropsey, The Islamic Bomb, op. cit. Google Scholar
  19. 23.
    For Pakistan, see Akhtar Ali, Pakistan’s Nuclear Dilemma, op. cit.; and for India, see ‘Pakistan and the Bomb: The Benefits. of Ambivalence,’ op. cit.; and Bhabani Sen Gupta, Nuclear Weapons: Policy Options for India (New Delhi: Sage Publications India, for Centre for Policy Research, 1983).Google Scholar

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© Hafeez Malik 1987

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  • Rodney W. Jones

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