Looking Ahead

  • Nancy Lubin
Part of the St Antony’s/Macmillan Series book series (STANTS)


The data discussed in Part I suggest the potential for immense political unrest in Uzbekistan. As illustrated, economic strains are growing among a rapidly expanding and relatively immobile population. Labour surpluses are growing and affecting the Central Asians to a greater degree than the Europeans. Sectoral and locational manpower imbalances continue to grow, with the indigenous nationalities concentrated in the traditional sectors and not entering other occupations essential for future economic expansion. On the whole, the data suggest that while urbanisation, industrialisation and modernisation have been occurring rapidly in Uzbekistan, the local nationalities have been only partly included in those processes and on a level well below their representation in the public’s population as a whole. The combination of growing economic strains and relatively low native participation in the economy’s most modern spheres would suggest that political unrest might follow, and be articulated in ethnic terms.


Affirmative Action Socialise Economy Central Authority Traditional Sector Economic Strain 
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Notes and References

  1. 1.
    Quoted in D. Carlisle, ‘Modernisation, Generations and the Uzbek Soviet Intelligentsia’, in P. Cocks, R. Daniels and N. Heer (eds), The Dynamics of Soviet Politics (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1976) p. 261. Fainsod’s analysis of the attitudes of new governing élites applies to present-day Uzbekistan: ‘The Bolshevik Revolution’ he writes ‘built its own network of revolutionary beneficiaries with vested interests in the perpetuation of the new order’.Google Scholar
  2. For a similar reaction regarding the present day Middle East, see also Malcolm Kerr, ‘Arab Nationalism— Is it Obsolete?’ Middle East Insight, vol. II, no. 3, 1982, p. 20.Google Scholar
  3. 4.
    See V. Zaslayskii and Iu. Luryi, ‘The Passport System in the USSR’, Soviet Union/Union Sovietique, vol. 6, part 2, 1979, p. 150.Google Scholar
  4. 5.
    H. Seton-Watson, ‘The Last of the Empires’, Washington Quarterly, vol. 3, no. 2, Spring, 1980, p. 42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. 6.
    Cyril Black, ‘The Dynamics of Modernization’, in F. Tachau (ed.) The Developing Nations: What path to Modernization? (New York: Dodd, Mead & Co., 1972) p. 39.Google Scholar
  6. 7.
    C. Geertz, Peddlers and Princes (Chicago: University of Chicago, 1968) p. 150.Google Scholar
  7. 8.
    Walker Connor, ‘The Politics of Ethnonationalism’, Journal of International Affairs, vol. 27, no. 1, 1973, p. 20.Google Scholar
  8. 9.
    See J. F. Besemeres, Socialist Population Politics (New York: M. E. Sharpe, 1980) p. 68.Google Scholar
  9. 10.
    H. Carrère d’Encausse, Decline of an Empire (New York: Newsweek, 1981) p. 249.Google Scholar
  10. 16.
    A. H. Brown, ‘Political Developments: Some Conclusions and an Interpretation’, in A. Brown and M. Kaser (eds) The Soviet Union Since the Fall of Khrushchev (London: Macmillan, 1975) p. 258.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Nancy Lubin 1984

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  • Nancy Lubin

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