Treaty-making, War and Peace: Further Empirical Evidence
The results which were reported in the previous chapter demonstrated a complex but consistent pattern of correlation between international lawmaking and war-avoidance that is clearly supportive of what has for the sake of brevity somewhat unattractively been described as the ‘circumscribed idealist hypothesis’. While in no sense wishing to deny that in many contexts —arguably the most important ones in terms of the broad sweep of world events — law signally failed to assist in the maintenance of peace in the 1920s and 1930s, a set of empirical findings has been outlined which suggests that in certain limited contexts international lawmaking may indeed have begun to play an indirect but positive role in the international politics of the period; a role which most previous observers have either completely ignored or summarily dismissed as ineffectual. Since the empirical findings which have been presented suggest the need for a small but significant revision in the orthodox realist interpretation of the 1930s (and perhaps, therefore, in the realist position generally), this chapter is devoted to an attempt to reinforce their plausibility.
KeywordsBilateral Trade Previous Chapter Trading Relationship Interwar Period Prior Record
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Notes and References
- 1.A number of excellent treatments of the principles behind log-linear modelling are available. See, for example, Graham Upton, The Analysis of Crosstabulation Data (Chichester: Wiley, 1976). The notation empioyed here followsGoogle Scholar
- David Knokke and Peter J. Burke, Loglinear Models (Beverly Hills, Ca: Sage, 1980 ).Google Scholar
- 2.For a general justification of this kind of usage, see Hubert M. Blalock, Causal Inferences in Nonexperimental Research (Chapel Hill, NC: University of North Carolina Press, 1964), ch. 3.Google Scholar