Advertisement

Short-term Models and Long-term Problems

  • Alan Budd
  • Sean Holly

Abstract

Consider an economy of which the following statements are true:
  1. 1.

    Between 1955 and 1960 the average rate of unemployment was 1.2 per cent. Between 1975 and 1980 it was 5.5 per cent.

     
  2. 2.

    Between 1955 and 1960 the average annual rate of inflation was 3 per cent. Between 1975 and 1980 it was 16 per cent.

     
  3. 3.

    In 1960 the ratio of manufacturing output to GDP was 35 per cent. In 1980 it was 25 per cent.

     
  4. 4.

    In 1960 the ratio of imports to GDP was 25 per cent. In 1980 it was 30 per cent.

     
  5. 5.

    Between 1955 and 1960 the average annual growth of GDP was 2.6 per cent. Between 1975 and 1980 it was 1.1 per cent.

     

Keywords

Exchange Rate Real Wage Trade Balance Excess Demand Trade Sector 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Ball, R. J. and T. Burns (1970) ‘An Interim Report on a Quarterly Statistical Model of the UK Economy’, in K. Hilton and D. Heathfield (eds) The Econometric Study of the United Kingdom (London: Macmillan) 497–8.Google Scholar
  2. Ball, R. J. and T. Burns (1979) ‘Long-run Portfolio Equilibrium and Balance of Payments Adjustment in Econometric Models’, in T. Sawyer (ed.) Modelling the International Transmission Mechanism (Amsterdam: North-Holland).Google Scholar
  3. Ball, R. J. Burns, T. and P. J. Warburton (1979) ‘The London Business School Model of the UK Economy: An Exercise in International Monetarism’, in P. Ormerod (ed.) Economic Modelling (London: Heinemann).Google Scholar
  4. Beenstock, M., Budd, A. and P. Warburton (1981) ‘Monetary Policy, Expectations and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics’, in W. A. Eltis and P. J. Sinclair (eds) The Money Supply and the Exchange Rate (Oxford: Clarendon Press) 85–119.Google Scholar
  5. Buiter, W. (1980) The Macroeconomics of Dr Pangloss: A Critical Survey of the New Classical Macroeconomics’, Economic Journal, 90, 34–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Cambridge Economic Policy Group (198la) ‘Economic Policy in the UK’, Cambridge Economic Policy Review, 7, 1.Google Scholar
  7. Cambridge Economic Policy Group (1981b) Technical Manual 7th edn.Google Scholar
  8. McCallum, J. and D. Vines (1981) ‘Cambridge and Chicago on the Balance of Payments’, Economic Journal 91, 439–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Pearce, I. F. (1970a) International Trade (London: Macmillan).Google Scholar
  10. Pearce, I. F. (1970b) ‘The Southampton Econometric Model of the UK and Trading Partners’, in K. Hilton and D. Heathfield (eds) The Econometric Study of the United Kingdom (London: Macmillan) 29–52.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© A. Ingham and A. M. Ulph 1984

Authors and Affiliations

  • Alan Budd
  • Sean Holly

There are no affiliations available

Personalised recommendations