The Long Wave Theory Confirmed by the Present Crisis

Abstract

Since 1945, the long waves in economic life have been a subject very scantily treated in economics if not even rejected in economic literature published in English. Interest in the long-wave theory is reviving as a result of economic trends since 1974. But many still look askance at the problem, as it appears in a garb very different from the original association of the long wave with gold which many remember as being linked with the name of N.D. Kondratieff: indeed so associated with that name that Schumpeter once called the long wave the Kondratieff movement (see Kondratieff, 1925).

Attention is drawn to the following new study on long waves published after the completion of this paper: C. Freeman, J. Clark and L. Soete, Unemployment and Technical Innovation: A Study of Long Waves and Economic Development (London: Frances Pinter, 1982). A selected annotated bibliography on long waves by K. Barr appeared in Review, vol. 11, no. 4, Spring, 1979, pp. 675–718. ED.