Soviet and Western Cooperation in Energy
Economic forecasting is always a chancy business. There are too many factors or variables. They interact, and they tend to be deflected by outside influences. In no field of economics have the practitioners of this black magic been held up for ridicule more than in the field of energy. The golden days are over when they could, or thought they could, make some reasonable-sounding assumptions about the likely rate of increase of the world economy (or country) and still further hypothecate that this measure of progress would be in a stable (or even better stable downward shifting) relationship with energy requirements. In fact oil demand grew by 7.0 % p.a. between 1965 - 1975 and has only slightly declined after an initial sharper drop. On the supply side reserves have dropped from 80 to 28 times yearly consumption. All these figures are very sensitive to changes in these assumptions. Oil has indubitably assumed the role of marginal supply of energy.
KeywordsTertiary Recovery Economic Forecast Energy Coefficient World Reserve Black Magic
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