Abstract
The boundaries of economic forecasting are not easy to draw. The economist may be inclined to say that virtually any forecast of the future state of the world has an appreciable economic content — or, if it does not, so much the worse for the forecast. There are not many forecasts which do not need, somewhere, some economic concepts — such as the problem of the allocation of a given volume of resources between different ends — or some form of economic analysis, such as the reaction of producers and consumers to relative price changes. This chapter limits itself to one part of this large field — to the evolution of the forecasting of the movements of the economy as a whole, and the influence which these forecasts have had on policy.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Notes
Hall, R. L. in the preface to J. C. R. Dow (1963), The Management of the British Economy 1945–60.
O’Dea, D. J. (1975), Cyclical indicators for the post-war British economy, Cambridge University Press.
For a discussion of some of the problems of differences in models, see Laury, Lewis and Ormerod, ‘Properties of macroeconomic models of the UK economy: A comparative study’, National Institute Economic Review, No. 83, February 1978
Christ, C. F., ‘Judging the performance of econometric models of the US economy’, International Economic Review, Vol. 16, No. 1, 1975
Ash, J. C. K. and Smyth, D. J. (1973), Forecasting the UK Economy, Glasgow: Saxon House,
Kennedy, M. C. (1969), ‘How well does the National Institute forecast?’ National Institute Economic Review, No. 50, November 1969
McNees, S. K. (1975), ‘An evaluation of economic forecasts’, New England Economic Review, November/December 1975
McNees, S. K. (1976), ‘The forecasting performance in the early 1970s’, New England Economic Review, July/August 1976, pp. 29–40
Macmillan, Harold, (1972), Pointing the Way, London: Macmillan, p. 222.
For a discussion of this particular approach, see F. Cripps, M. Fetherston and W. Godley, ‘What is left of New Cambridge?’, Economic Policy Review, March 1976, No. 2.
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Copyright information
© 1979 Science Policy Research Unit, Sussex
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Blackaby, F. (1979). Economic Forecasting. In: Whiston, T. (eds) The Uses and Abuses of Forecasting. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-04486-3_3
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-04486-3_3
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London
Print ISBN: 978-1-349-04488-7
Online ISBN: 978-1-349-04486-3
eBook Packages: Palgrave Social & Cultural Studies CollectionSocial Sciences (R0)