Abstract
Most of the forecasts discussed in this book concern events which are, to a greater or lesser degree, influenced by human activities. In such a situation, it is inevitable that the dynamic interaction of the forecasts themselves with those human activities will change the situation, possibly so that the original forecast is no longer relevant; certainly there is danger in too ready acceptance of a sociological forecast of a unique ‘future’ either in general or in some specific regard, and all such forecasts must be regarded as inputs to the social system, with feedback from the social system continually modifying the nature and applicability of the forecast as conditions in society change. Forecasts of natural events, on the other hand, might be expected to offer more rigid views of ‘the future’, at least in detail, and to be much more clearly testable in terms of success or failure — if the weather forecast predicts blue skies and sunshine, but we actually experience heavy rainfall, we all have a clear assessment of the value of the forecast.
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© 1979 Science Policy Research Unit, Sussex
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Gribbin, J. (1979). Forecasting the Forces of Nature. In: Whiston, T. (eds) The Uses and Abuses of Forecasting. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-04486-3_11
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-04486-3_11
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London
Print ISBN: 978-1-349-04488-7
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