Prospects of Economic Growth in the Federal Republic of Germany

Abstract

This paper deals with long-term economic growth forecasts for the West German economy, the methods used or which ought to be used, the results yielded, and hypotheses about factors determining the pattern of the future growth process. Long-term forecasting with respect to economic growth is a rather recently established activity in West Germany. For a long time during the post-war period, policy makers regarded economic growth merely as a spontaneous result of the market mechanism which descended like manna. There seemed to be no reason to consider it as a matter of economic policy. Moreover, economists who have taken an interest in quantitative longterm forecasts have run the risk of being suspected of smuggling planning elements into the free market economy. As long as growth rates were sufficiently high, the public interest in growth analysis and growth prediction was very low.