Contemporary world demographic trends

Abstract

By way of introduction the reader is to be warned that, as yet, we do not have complete statistical coverage of the earth’s population through comprehensive and reliable censuses and current registration of births, deaths and migration. Fortunately for the world as a whole, net migration is nil, and this fact reduces the sources of error, the presence of which should always be allowed for in interpreting the statistical estimates presented in this paper. The further in time we move away from the present moment in either forward or backward direction, the greater the probable degree of error. Once, however, we dispose of reliable demographic data on mainland China, the most populous country in the world, the statistically most significant element of uncertainty will have been removed.