Abstract
Emphasis in much recent work on macroeconometric model building has been placed on short-term forecasting. This is by no means a misguided activity, but it leaves undone another task of great importance to the users of econometric output. There is an evident need for longer-term analysis, capable of providing projections ahead for a decade or more. Just as many users find it essential to look ahead for the next few months or for periods up to two or three years, others find it essential, for their purposes, to look ahead for much longer stretches of time.
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Notes
See L. R. Klein, Economic Fluctuations in the United States, 1921–1941 (New York: John Wiley, 1950).
See L. R. Klein and A. S. Goldberger, An Econometric Model of the United States, 1929–1952 (Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing, 1955).
See L. R. Klein and R. Kosobud, “Some Economertics of Growth: Great Ratios of Economics,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, LXXV (May, 1961), 173–198.
M. Morishima and M. Saito, “A Dynamic Analysis of the American Economy, 1902–1952,” International Economic Review, 5 (May, 1964), 125–164.
S. Valavanis-Vail, “An Econometric Model of Growth, U.S.A., 1869–1953,” American Economic Review, Supplement, 45 (May, 1955), 208–221.
Many hypotheses about these interrelationships are to be found in R. A. Easterlin, Population, Labor Force, and Long Swings in Economic Growth (New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1968).
F. M. Fisher, L. R. Klein, and Y. Shinkai, “Price and Output Aggregation in the Brookings Econometric Model,” The Brookings Quarterly Econometric Model of the United States, ed. by J. Duesenberry, et al. (Chicago: Rand, McNally, 1965).
Herman Kahn, “Toward the Year 2000: Work in Progress,” Daedalus (Summer, 1967), 939–940.
See L. R. Klein, An Essay on the Theory of Economic Prediction (Helsinki: The Academic Bookstore, 1968).
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© 2016 Lawrence R. Klein
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Klein, L.R. (2016). 1969: Econometric Model Building for Growth Projections. In: Crow, R.T. (eds) The Best of Business Economics. Palgrave Macmillan, New York. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-137-57251-6_3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-137-57251-6_3
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