Capital cycle analysis, as it originally evolved at Marathon, looked to invest in companies from sectors where capital was being withdrawn and to avoid companies in industries where assets were increasing rapidly. The insight being that both profits and valuations should generally rise after capital has exited an industry and decline after capital has poured in. In other words, capital cycle analysis was all about the drivers of mean reversion. Yet the same mode of analysis can be used to identify companies which, for one reason or another, are able to repel competition.
KeywordsCash Flow Switching Cost Share Price Intangible Asset Free Cash Flow
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