Abstract
Elements of reliability theory and of the methodology of probabilistic safety analysis (PSA), necessary to understand their implementation to perform the probabilistic security assessment of the transmission grid, are reviewed in this chapter.
The approach chosen is top-down. Starting from the definition of risk, PSA is presented as the tool estimating the residual risk in a system, once protection systems are devised. In order to do so, event trees are introduced to represent those scenarios developing either to safe or undesired final states, after the occurrence of an initiating event. Fault trees are then shown to connect the occurrence of the branch events in the event trees to the logical combinations of basic component failures.
At a second stage, a bottom-up presentation of the quantification process is provided. Component reliability is first summarised to characterise basic events in some elementary cases. The calculation of the probability of the fault tree top events is explained, based on the prior identification of the minimal cut sets of the system.
Finally, some comments are provided on the limitations of this classical PSA approach and on the impact of grid dynamics on the development of accident scenarios.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Aven T (2010) Misconceptions of risk. Wiley, Chichester. ISBN 978–0-470–68388-0.
IEC 60050-191 International Electrotechnical Vocabulary (IEV), Chapter 191: Dependability and quality of service. http://www.electropedia.org/iev/iev.nsf/index?openform&part=191. Accessed 29 June 2010
Kumamoto H, Henley EJ (1996) Probabilistic risk assessment and management for engineers and scientists, 2nd edn. IEEE Press, ISBN 0-7803-6017-6
Zio E (2007) An introduction to the basics of reliability and risk analysis. Ser on qual, reliab and Eng stat, 13. World Scientific Publishing Co Pte Ltd, Singapore ISBN-13 978-981-270-639-3
Bedford T, Cooke R (2001) Probabilistic risk analysis—foundations and methods. Cambridge University Press 2001, Cambridge
McDermott RE, Mikulak RJ, Beauregard MR (1996) The basics of FMEA. Quality Resources, New York
Rausand M, Høyland A (2004) System reliability theory, models, statistical methods, and applications, 2nd ed. Wiley, Hoboken, NJ, USA. ISBN 0-471-47133-X
Pottonen L (2005) A method for the probabilistic security analysis of transmission grids. A doctoral dissertation, Helsinki University of Technology, 951-22-7591-0, 951-22-7592-9 http://lib.tkk.fi/Diss/2005/isbn9512275929/. Accessed 29 June 2010
Misra KB (1992) Reliability analysis and prediction—a methodology oriented treatment. Fundamental studies in engineering 15. Elsevier, Amsterdam
Lannoy A, Procaccia H (1994) Méthodes Avancées d’Analyse des Bases de Données du Retour d’Expérience Industriel. Collection de la Direction des Etudes et Recherches d’Electricité de France, 86 Eyrolles, Paris
Modarres M (1993) What every engineer should know about reliability and risk analysis. Marcel Dekker Inc., New York
Siu N (1994) Risk assessment for dynamic systems: an overview. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 43(1):43–73
Labeau PE, Smidts C, Swaminathan S (2000) Dynamic reliability: towards an integrated platform for probabilistic risk assessment. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 68(3):219–254
Labeau PE, Izquierdo JM (2005) Modeling PSA problems. I. The stimulus-driven theory of probabilistic dynamics. Nucl Sci Eng 150(2):115–139
Chen Q (2004) The probability, identification, and prevention of rare events in power systems. PhD dissertation, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa. http://www.pserc.org/cgi-pserc/getbig/publicatio/2004public/qimingchen_phd_dissertation_on_cascading.pdf. Accessed 13 May 2010
Hortal J, Izquierdo JM (1996) Application of the integrated safety assessment methodology to the protection of electric systems. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 52(3):315–326
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2011 Springer-Verlag London Limited
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Haarla, L. (2011). Basic Concepts of Reliability Theory. In: Transmission Grid Security. Power Systems. Springer, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-85729-145-5_4
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-85729-145-5_4
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, London
Print ISBN: 978-0-85729-144-8
Online ISBN: 978-0-85729-145-5
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)