A risk can be defined as a function of the probability of an adverse health effect and the severity of that effect, consequential to a hazard in food (Codex Alimentarius, 1999) . During a risk assessment, an estimate of the risk is obtained. The goal is to estimate the likelihood and the extent of adverse effects occurring to humans due to possible exposure(s) to hazards. Risk assessment is a scientifically based process consisting of the following steps: (1) hazard identification, (2) hazard characterization, (3) exposure assessment and (4) and risk characterization (Codex Alimentarius, 1999) .
During the hazard identification , biological, chemical and physical agents that are capable of causing adverse health effects and which may be present in a particular food or group of foods are identified (Codex Alimentarius, 1999). In the second step, the hazard characterization , the nature of the adverse health effects associated with the hazards is evaluated in a qualitative and/or quantitative way (Codex Alimentarius, 1999); therefore, a dose—response assessment should be performed. The dose—response assessment is the determination of the relationship between the magnitude of exposure (dose) to a chemical, biological or physical agent and the severity and/or frequency of associated adverse health effects (response). The overall aim is to estimate the nature, severity and duration of the adverse effects resulting from ingestion of the agent in question (Benford, 2001). Exposure assessment is defined as the qualitative and/or quantitative evaluation of the likely intake of the hazard via food as well as exposure from other sources, if relevant (Codex Alimentarius, 1999) . For food, the level ingested will be determined by the levels of the agent in the food and the amount consumed. The last step, risk characterization, integrates the information collected in the preceding three steps. It interprets the qualitative and quantitative information on the toxicological properties of a chemical with the extent to which individuals (parts of the population, or the population at large) are exposed to it (Kroes et al., 2002). In other words, estimating how likely it is that harm will be done and how severe the effects will be. The outcome may be referred to as a risk estimate, or the probability of harm at given or expected exposure levels (Benford, 2001).
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Benford D., Principles of risk assessment of food and drinking water related to human health. ILSI Europe Concise Monograph Series, 2001.
Burmaster D.E., Anderson P.D., Principles of good practice for the use of Monte Carlo techniques in human health and ecological risk assessment, Risk Anal, 14, 477–481, 1994.
Burmaster D.E., Wilson A.M., An introduction to second-order random variables in human health risk assessments, Hum Ecol Risk Assess, 2, 892–919, 1996.
Codex Alimentarius, Principles and guidelines for the conduct of microbiological risk assessment, CAC/GL-30, 1999.
Cullen A.C., Frey H.C., Probabilistic techniques in exposure assessment. A handbook for dealing with variability and uncertainty in models and inputs, Plenum, New York, 1999
Finley B., Paustenbach D., The benefits of probabilistic exposure assessment: three case studies involving contaminated air, water and soil, Risk Anal, 14, 53–73, 1994.
IEH (The Institute of Environment and Health), Probabilistic approaches to food risk assessment, 2000.
Kroes R., Galli C., Munro I., Schilter B., Tran L., Walker R., Wurtzen G., Threshold of toxicologi-cal concern for chemical substances present in the diet: a practical tool for assessing the need for toxicity testing, Food Chem Toxicol, 38, 255–312, 2000.
Kroes R., Müller D., Lambe J., Löwik M.R.H., van Klaveren J., Kleiner J., Massey R., Mayer S., Urieta I., Verger P., Visconti A., Assessment of intake from the diet, Food Chem Toxicol, 40, 327–385, 2002.
Parmar B., Miller P.F., Burt R., Stepwise approaches for estimating the intakes of chemicals in food, Regul Toxicol Pharmacol, 26, 44–51, 1997.
Rousseau D., Verdonck F.A.M., Moerman O., Carrette R., Thoeye C., Meirlaen J., Vanrolleghem P.A., Development of a risk assessment based technique for design/retrofitting of WWTPs , Water Sci Technol, 43, 287–294, 2001.
Verdonck F., Geo-referenced probabilistic ecological risk assessment, Ph.D. thesis, Ghent University, 2003.
Verdonck F., Janssen C., Thas O., Jaworska J., Vanrolleghem P.A., Probabilistic environmental risk assessment, Med Fac Landbouw Univ Gent, 66, 13–19, 2001.
Vose D., Quantitative risk analysis. A guide to Monte Carlo simulation modelling, Wiley, New York, 1996.
Vose D., Risk analysis: a quantitative guide, Wiley, New York, 2000.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2009 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Baert, K., Francois, K., Meulenaer, B.D., Devlieghere, F. (2009). Risk Assessment: A Quantitative Approach. In: Costa, R., Kristbergsson, K. (eds) Predictive Modeling and RiskAssessment. Integrating Safety and Environmental Knowledge Into Food Studies towards European Sustainable Development, vol 4. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-68776-6_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-68776-6_2
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
Print ISBN: 978-0-387-33512-4
Online ISBN: 978-0-387-68776-6
eBook Packages: Chemistry and Materials ScienceChemistry and Material Science (R0)