Conjectures

Abstract

“To be or not to be ....” This famous phrase not only introduces Hamlet’s dilemma, it also poses the question a scientific conjecture ultimately must confront. Until that confrontation occurs, the conjecture will be tenable if (1) there is no evidence contradicting it, and (2) it is based either on verified predictions or on a plausible theoretical framework (or both).^a Sometimes conjectures graduate and become new paradigms, an example of which is general relativity.

“Conjecture” is being used in a very specific way, as indicated by the two conditions stated above.¹ “Speculations,” on the other hand, satisfy neither of the requirements noted in the second of these two conditions. Exemplified by “What if ...” types of statements, they are akin to ad hoc proposals. Several will be encountered later in this chapter.