The Why and How of Dynamic Modeling

Few tasks are nobler than those that improve the length and quality of life of humans and their fellow species. And few tasks are more difficult to accomplish. To be successful, we must assess the vulnerabilities of individuals to attacks on their health and well-being, we must understand the interactions of individuals with each other and their environment, and we must anticipate the likely consequences of all these factors in an ever-changing world—individual vulnerabilities change, new diseases and pests emerge, old ones reappear, new means are developed to detect and combat adverse influences on health and well-being, and new standards for health and quality of life are applied.

There are many drivers behind the spread of diseases and pests. Climate change may create new temperature and precipitation regimes conducive to diseases and pests that would otherwise be irrelevant for particular locations. West Nile fever, malaria and encephalitis, for example, are increasingly of concern to public health officials. Other drivers are related to our use of technology in a globalizing world. For example, ballast water used in ships can carry with it organisms and spread them to ever more far-flung places. Increased travel of people around the globe can promote dispersal of viruses, bacteria, fungi, and other “agents” that affect the health and well-being of species and ecosystems.