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Migration of the Tropical Cyclone Zone throughout the Holocene

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Hurricanes and Climate Change

Abstract

This paper proposes that a combination of short and long term atmospheric oscillations have resulted in latitudinal movement of the tropical cyclone (TC) zone and location of landfall through the Holocene. A GIS-based approach demonstrates that currently intensity changes of the Bermuda High (BH) result in a large latitudinal spread of TC track and landfall location across the western North Atlantic (NA), while a literature-based examination of paleoclimatic evidence supports the view that long-term changes in the pole-equator temperature gradient has resulted in significant latitudinal migration of the general NA atmospheric system throughout the Holocene, with a heightened (reduced) gradient moving the entire system southward (northward). Our model suggests that the location of hurricane landfall since the mid Holocene is controlled by a millennial scale migration of the hurricane zone (paralleling latitudinal movement of the entire system), complicated by the superimposition of a higher frequency variation in track location, (controlled by intensity oscillations). The resulting millennial scale shifts in landfall location of major hurricanes are hindcast, and methods for testing this hypothesis are described.

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Acknowledgments

This research was funded by National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship, LSU Board of Regents Fellowship,(TAM), and National Science Foundation Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement Grant (TAM and JTK). We thank Kam-biu Liu for his guidance and advice. The work was improved due to the comments of an anonymous reviewer.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Louisiana State University, Louisiana

    Terrence A. McCloskey

  2. Department of Geography and Anthropology, Louisiana State University, Louisiana

    Jason T. Knowles

  3. 1002Y Energy Coast and Environment Building, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA. 70803

    Terrence A. McCloskey

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  1. Department of Geography, Florida State University, Ferndale Drive 114, Tallahassee, 32306, U.S.A.

    James B. Elsner

  2. S. Leyden Street 3122, Denver, 80222, U.S.A.

    Thomas H. Jagger

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McCloskey, T.A., Knowles, J.T., McCloskey, T.A. (2009). Migration of the Tropical Cyclone Zone throughout the Holocene. In: Elsner, J., Jagger, T. (eds) Hurricanes and Climate Change. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-09410-6_10

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