The Record of the Large Models

Abstract

This chapter contains an analysis of how far in advance the London Business School, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research and the Treasury published warnings about the four recessions and the three inflations identified in the last chapter. The first stage of the analysis is to establish when the event in question started; that is, when the recession began or the period of rapid inflation commenced. The second stage is to find out the date on which the earliest warning was given. The dates can then be compared to find out how far in advance the warning was sounded.