Skip to main content

Stabilisation, Adjustment and Growth Prospects in Transitional Economies

  • Chapter
Turkey and Central and Eastern European Countries in Transition
  • 58 Accesses

Abstract

It is now over a decade since the transition from planned to market economy and from single-party to democratic rule began in Eastern Europe and slightly less in the former Soviet Union. It is widely agreed that this political and economic transition, affecting about one fourth of the world’s population, has been a unique and historic experience.2 In Eastern Europe the political regimes changed in a very short time, ending one-party socialism. Further east, the collapse of the Soviet Union resulted in fourteen newly independent states. Output declines were worse than expected and some countries had lost more than half of their GDP by 1995. During the course of the transition inflation has reached thousands of per cent, especially in the former Soviet countries, sharply lowering wages and hence living standards.

The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this chapter are entirely the author’s. They do not necessarily represent those of the World Bank, its executive directors or the countries they represent. However, the author, editor and publishers are grateful to the World Bank for permission to reproduce copyright material from Policy Research Working Papers.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Aghion, P. and O. Blanchard (1994) ‘On The Speed of Adjustment In Central Europe’, in S. Fischer and J. Rotemberg (eds) NBER Macroeconomics Annual, vol. 9 (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press) pp 284–320.

    Google Scholar 

  • Alesina, A. (1994) ‘Political Models of Macroeconomic Policy and Fiscal Reforms’, in S. Haggard and S. Webb (eds), Voting For Reforms (New York: World Bank and Oxford University Press), pp. 37–60.

    Google Scholar 

  • Aslund, A. (1994) ‘Lessons of the First Four Years of Systemic Change in Eastern Europe’, Journal of Comparative Economics, vol. 19, no. 1 (August), pp. 22–39.

    Google Scholar 

  • Balcerowicz, L. (1993) ‘Common Fallacies in the Debate on the Economic Transition in Central and Eastern Europe’, EBRD Discussion Paper no. 11 (London: European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, October).

    Google Scholar 

  • Balcerowicz, L. and A. Gelb (1994) ‘Macropolicies in Transition to a Market Economy: A Three-Year Perspective’, paper prepared for the World Bank Annual Conference on Development Economics, Washington, DC, April 28–29.

    Google Scholar 

  • Banerjee, B., V. Koen, T. Krueger, M. S. Lutz, M. Marrese and T. Saavalainen (1995) Road Maps of Transition. The Baltics, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Russia, IMF Occasional Paper no. 127 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, September).

    Google Scholar 

  • Barro, R.J. (1991) ‘Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries’, Ouarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 6 (May), pp. 407–43.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bennett, A. G. G. (1994) ‘Currency Boards: Issues and Experiences’, IMF Paper on Policy Analysis and Assessment 94/18 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund).

    Google Scholar 

  • Berg, A. (1993) ‘Recession and Structural Adjustment in Poland’, paper presented at IMF Seminar on ‘Recession and Reform in Poland’, January.

    Google Scholar 

  • Berg, A. (1994) ‘Does Macroeconomic Reform Cause Structural Adjustment? Lessons From Poland’, Journal of Comparative Economics, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 376–410.

    Google Scholar 

  • Berg, A. and J. Sachs (1992) ’structural Adjustment and International Trade in Eastern Europe: The Case of Poland’, Economic Policy: A European Forum, no. 14 (April) pp. 117–73.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blanchard, O. (1997) The Economics of Post-Communist Transition Clarendon Lectures in Economics, (Oxford: Oxford University Press).

    Google Scholar 

  • Blanchard, O., K. A. Froot and J. D. Sachs (1994) The Transition in Eastern Europe: Volume II-Restructuring (Chicago, 111.: University of Chicago Press).

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Blejer, M. I. and A. Cheasty (eds) (1993) How to Measure the Fiscal Deficit (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund).

    Google Scholar 

  • Brada, J., I. J. Singh and A. Torok (1994) Firms Afloat and Firms Adrift: Hungarian Industry and the Economic Transition (London and New York: M. E. Sharpe).

    Google Scholar 

  • Bredenkamp, H. (1993) ‘Conducting Monetary and Credit Policy in Countries of the Former Soviet Union: Some Issues and Options’, IMF Working Paper 93/23 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund).

    Google Scholar 

  • Bruno, M. (1992) ’stabilisation and Reform in Eastern Europe’, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 39, (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund).

    Google Scholar 

  • Bruno, M. (1993a) Crisis, Stabilization and Economic Reform: Therapy by Consensus (Oxford: Oxford University Press).

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Bruno, M. (1993b)’ stabilization and the Macroeconomics of Transition: How Different is Eastern Europe?’ Economics of Transition, vol. 1, no. 1 (London: European Bank for Reconstruction and Development), pp. 5–19.

    Google Scholar 

  • Burda, M. C. (1994) Structural Change and Unemployment in Central and Eastern Europe: Some Key Issues, Discussion Paper Series no. 977 (London: Centre for Economic Policy Research, June).

    Google Scholar 

  • Calvo, G., and M. S. Kumar (1994) ‘Money Demand, Bank Credit, and Economic Performance in Former Socialist Economies’, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 41, no. 2 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund) pp. 314–49.

    Google Scholar 

  • Calvo, G., R. Sahay and C. Vegh (1995) ‘Capital Flows in Central and Eastern Europe: Evidence and Policy Options’, Draft IMF Working Paper (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund).

    Google Scholar 

  • Calvo, G. and C. Vegh (1992) ‘Inflation Stabilization and Nominal Anchors’, IMF Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessment 92/4 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund).

    Google Scholar 

  • Chadka, B. and F. Coricelli (1994) Fiscal Constraints and the Speed of Transition, Discussion Paper Series no. 993 (London: Centre for Economic Policy Research, July).

    Google Scholar 

  • Chadka, B., F. Coricelli and K. Krajnyak (1993) ‘Economic Restructuring, Unemployment, and Growth in a Transition Economy’, IMF Staff Papers, vol. 40, no. 4 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund), pp. 744–781.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chu, K-Y. and G. Schwartz (1994) ‘Output Decline and Government Expenditures in European Transition Economies’, IMF Working Paper no. WP/94/68 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, June).

    Google Scholar 

  • Citrin, D., J. Anderson and J. Zettelmeyer (1995) ‘The IMF’s Approach to Stabilization in the Baltics, Russia and the other FSU Countries’, Economic Policy in Transition Economies (MOCT ), vol. 5, no. 2.

    Google Scholar 

  • Conway, P. (1995) Currency Proliferation: The Economic Legacy of the Soviet Union, Essays in International Finance (Princeton, N.J. Department of Economics, Princeton University).

    Google Scholar 

  • Coricelli, F. (1994) ‘Fiscal Issues in Transition Economies’, Department of Economics, University of Siena, Italy, September.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dabrowski, M. (1995) ‘Different Strategies of Transition to a Market Economy: How Do They Work in Practice?’ mimeo (Washington, DC: Transition Economies Division, Policy Research Department, World Bank).

    Google Scholar 

  • De Grauwe, P. (1995) ‘Monetary Policies in the EMS’, in C. Bordes, E. Girardin and J. Melitz (eds), European Currency Crises and After (Manchester and New York: Manchester University Press).

    Google Scholar 

  • De Melo, M., C. Denizer and A. Gelb (1996) ‘From Plan To Market: Patterns of Transition’, Policy Research Department (Washington, DC: World Bank, April, revised).

    Google Scholar 

  • De Melo, M., C. Denizer, A. Gelb and S. Tenev (1997) ‘Explaining Transition: the Role of Initial Conditions in Reforming Socialist Countries’ (Washington, DC: Policy Research Department, World Bank).

    Google Scholar 

  • De Melo, M. and A. Gelb (1996) ‘A Comparative Analysis of Twenty Eight Transition Economies in Europe and Asia’, Post Soviet Geography and Economics, vol. 3 7, no. 5, pp. 265–85.

    Google Scholar 

  • Easterly, W. (1995) ‘When is stabilization expansionary?’ Working Paper (Washington, DC: Policy Research Department, World Bank).

    Google Scholar 

  • Easterly, W. and M. Bruno (1994) ‘Inflation Crises and Long-run Growth’, mimeo (Washington, DC: Policy Research Department, World Bank).

    Google Scholar 

  • Easterly, W., M. de Melo and G. Ofer (1994) ’services as a Major Source of Growth in Russia and other Former Soviet States’, Working Paper (Washington, DC: Policy Research Department, World Bank).

    Google Scholar 

  • Easterly, W. (1996) ‘When is Stabilization Expansionary? Evidence from High Inflation’, Economic Policy: A European Forum, pp. 65–98.

    Google Scholar 

  • Edwards, S. (1992) ’stabilization and Liberalization Policies for Economies in Transition: Latin American Lessons for Eastern Europe’, in C. Clauge and G. Rausser (eds), The Emergence of Market Economies in Eastern Europe (Oxford: Basil Blackwell).

    Google Scholar 

  • European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) (1994) Transition Report (London: European Bank for Reconstruction and Development).

    Google Scholar 

  • European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) (1995) Transition Report Update (London: European Bank for Reconstruction and Development April).

    Google Scholar 

  • European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) (1996) Transition Report 1996: Infrastructure and Savings, (London: European Bank for Reconstruction and Development).

    Google Scholar 

  • Fan, Q. and M. Shaffer (1994) ‘Government Financial Transfers and Enterprise Adjustment in Russia, With Comparison To Central and Eastern Europe’, World Bank Discussion Paper, Europe and Central Asia Region, (Washington DC: World Bank, June).

    Google Scholar 

  • Fedorov, B. (1995) ‘Macroeconomic Policy and Stabilization in Russia’, in A. Aslund (ed.), Russian Economic Reform at Risk (London and New York: Pinter).

    Google Scholar 

  • Fischer, S. (1986) ‘Exchange Rate versus Money Targets in Disinflation’, in Indexing, Inflation and Economic Policy (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press).

    Google Scholar 

  • Fischer, S. and A. Gelb (1991) ‘The Process of Economic Transformation’, Joumal of Economic Perspectives vol. 5, no. 1.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fischer, S., R. Sahay and C. A. Végh (1996) ’stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies: The Early Experience’, Journal of Economic Perspectives vol. 10, no. 2 (Spring), pp. 45–66.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gelb, A., G. Jefferson and I. Singh (1993) ‘Can Communist Economies Transform Incrementally? The Experience of China’, in O. Blanchard and S. Fischer (eds), NBER Macroeconomics Annual, vol. 8 (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press), pp. 87–133.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gomulka, S. (1997) ‘Output: Causes of the Decline and the Recovery’, in P. Boone, S. Gomulka and R. Layard (eds), Understanding Transition (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press).

    Google Scholar 

  • Gros, Daniel and Alfred Steinherr (1995) Winds of Change: Economic Transition in Central and Eastern Europe (London: Longman).

    Google Scholar 

  • Hanke, S. and K. Schüler (1994) Currency Boards for Developing Countries. A Handbook (San Francisco, CA: International Center for Economic Growth, ICS Press).

    Google Scholar 

  • Havrylyshyn, O., M. Miller and W. Perraudin (1994) ‘Deficits, inflation and the political economy of Ukraine’, Economic Policy, no. 19 (October).

    Google Scholar 

  • Helliwell, J. F. (1994) ‘Empirical Linkages Between Democracy and Economic Growth’, British Journal of Political Science, vol. 24, part 2, pp. 225–48.

    Google Scholar 

  • Horst, S. (ed.) (1993) Overcoming the Transformation Crisis (Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft an der Universität Kiel).

    Google Scholar 

  • Hughes, G. and P. Hare (1994) The International Competitiveness of Industries in Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Poland, Oxford Economic Papers 46 (Oxford: Oxford University Press), pp. 200–21.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hung, N. M. (ed.) (1992) The Challenges of Vietnam’s Reconstruction (Fairfax, VR, and East-West Center, Honolulu: Indochina Institute and George Mason University.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ickes, B. and R. Ryterman (1993) ‘From Enterprise to Firm: Notes for a Theory of the Enterprise in Transition’, in R. Campbell (ed.), The Postcommunist Economic Transformation (Boulder, CO: Westview Press).

    Google Scholar 

  • Inkeles, A. (1990) ‘Introduction: On Measuring Democracy’, Studies in Comparative International Development, vol. 25, no. 1, pp. 3–6.

    Google Scholar 

  • International Monetary Fund (International Monetary Fund) (1994) World Economic Outlook: World Economic and Financial Surveys (Washington, DC: IMF, October).

    Google Scholar 

  • International Monetary Fund (IMF) (1995) World Economic Outlook: World Outlook Economic and Financial Surveys (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, May).

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • International Monetary Fund (IMF) (1994) ‘Financial Relations Among Countries of the Former Soviet Union’, IMF Economic Review, no. 1 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund).

    Google Scholar 

  • Jackman, R. (1994) ‘Economic Policy and Employment in the Transition Economies of Central and Eastern Europe: What Have We Learned?’ International Labor Review, vol. 133, no. 3, pp. 327–45.

    Google Scholar 

  • Karatnycky, A. (1995) ‘Democracies on the Rise, Democracies at Risk’, Freedom Review, January/February pp. 5–22.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kaufmann, D. and A. Kaliberda (1996) ‘Integrating the Unofficial Economy into the Dynamics of Post Socialist Economies: A Framework of Analysis and Evidence’ in B. Kaminski (ed) Economic Transition in Russia and the New States of Eurasia, International Politics of Eurasia series, Vol. 8, pp. 81–120 (Armonk, NY and London: Sharpe).

    Google Scholar 

  • Kierzkowski, H., E. Phelps and G. Zoega (1994) ‘Mechanisms of Economic Collapse and Growth in Eastern Europe’, PPRG Discussion Paper no. 30 (Warsaw: Polish Policy Research Group).

    Google Scholar 

  • Kopits, G. and E. Offerdal (1994) ‘Fiscal Policy in Transition Economies: A Major Challenge’, Finance and Development, vol. 31, no. 4 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund/The World Bank), December, pp. 10–13.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kornai, J. (1992) The Socialist System: The Political Economy of Communism (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press).

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Kornai, J. (1993a) ‘Transformational Recession: A General Phenomenon Examined through the Example of Hungary’s Development’, Economie Appliqué;, vol. 46, no. 2, pp. 181–227.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kornai, J. (1993b) ‘The Evolution of Financial Discipline under the Postsocialist System’, Kyklos, vol. 46, no. 3.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kornai, J. (1995) Highway and Byways: Studies on Reform and Post-Communist Transition, (Cambridge, Mass.: and London: MIT Press).

    Google Scholar 

  • Krajnyak, K. and J. Zettelmeyer (1997) ‘Competitiveness in Transition Economies: What scope for real appreciation’, IMF Staff Papers, vol. 45, no. 2.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lavigne, M. (1995) The Economics of Transition: From Socialist Economy to Market Economy (New York: St. Martin’s Press).

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Leijonhufvud, A. (1994) ‘The Macroeconomic Dilemma of Russia’, Commencement Lecture at the Central European University, Prague, August.

    Google Scholar 

  • Levine, R. and D. Renelt (1992) ‘A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions’, American Economic Review, vol. 82 (September), pp. 942–63.

    Google Scholar 

  • McKinnon, R. I. (1994) ‘Financial Growth and Macroeconomic Stability in China, 1978–1992: Implications for Russia and Other Transitional Economies’, Journal of Comparative Economics, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 438–70.

    Google Scholar 

  • Milanovic, B. (1995) ‘Poverty, Inequality and Social Policy in Transition Economies’, Research Project on Income Distribution during the Transition, paper no. 9 (Washington, DC: Policy Research Department, April).

    Google Scholar 

  • Murrell, P. (1996) ‘How Far Has the Transition Progressed?’ Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 25–44.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ofer, G. (1987) ’soviet Economic Growth: 1928–85’, Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 25, no. 4, pp. 1767–1833.

    Google Scholar 

  • Portes, R. (ed.) (1993) Economic Transformation in Central Europe: A Progress Report (London: Centre for Economic Policy Research).

    Google Scholar 

  • Rona-Tas, A. (1994) ‘The First Shall be Last? Entrepreneurship and Communist Cadres in the Transition from Socialism’, American Journal of Sociology, vol. 100, no. 1, pp. 40–69.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rostowski, J. (1994) ’systemic Requirements for Monetary Stability in Eastern Europe and the FSU’, IMF Working Paper, WP/94/24 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund).

    Google Scholar 

  • Saavalainen, T. O. (1995). ’stabilization in the Baltic Countries: A Comparative Analysis’, IMF Working Paper, WP/95/44, (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund).

    Google Scholar 

  • Sachs, J. (1994) ‘Russia’s Struggle with Stabilization: Conceptual Issues and Evidence’, paper presented at the World Bank Annual Conference on Development Economics, April 28–29. 1994, Washington D.C.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sachs, J. and T. W. Wing (1994) ’structural Factors in the Economic Reforms of China, Eastern Europe, and the Former Soviet Union’, Economic Policy, vol. 18 (April).

    Google Scholar 

  • Sahay, R. and C. Végh (1995) ‘Inflation and Stabilization in Transition Economies: A Comparison with Market Economies’, IMF Working Paper, WP/95/8 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund).

    Google Scholar 

  • Sahay, R. and C. Végh (1995) ‘Dollarization in Transition Economies: Evidence and Policy Implications’, unpublished manuscript

    Google Scholar 

  • Sargent, T. (1982) ‘The Ends of Four Big Inflations’, in Robert Hall (ed.), Inflation, Causes and Effects (Chicago, Ill.: University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research).

    Google Scholar 

  • Stiglitz, J. E. (1994) Whither Socialism (Cambridge, Mass., and London: MIT Press).

    Google Scholar 

  • Tanzi, V. (ed.) (1992) Fiscal Policies in Economies in Transition (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund).

    Google Scholar 

  • Tanzi, V. (1993) ‘The Budget Deficit in Transition: A Cautionary Note’, IMF Staff Papers, vol. 40, no. 3 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund), pp. 697–707.

    Google Scholar 

  • Taylor, L. (1994) ‘Market Met its Match: Lessons for Future from the Transition’s Initial Years, 1994’, Journal of Comparative Economics, vol. 19, pp. 64–87.

    Google Scholar 

  • Thuyet, P. van (1995) ‘Legal Framework and Private Sector Development in Transitional Economies: the Case of Vietnam’, mimeo (Washington, DC: Policy Research Department, World Bank).

    Google Scholar 

  • Végh, C. A. (1992) ’stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview’, IMF Staff Papers, vol. 39, no. 3 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund), pp. 626–95.

    Google Scholar 

  • Windell, J., R. Anker and G. Sziraczki (1995) ‘Kyrghzstan: Enterprise restructuring and labor shedding in a free-fall economy, 1991–1994’, Labor Market Paper no. 5 (Geneva: Employment Department, International Labour Office).

    Google Scholar 

  • Wing, T. W. (1994) ‘The Art of Reforming Centrally Planned Economies: Comparing China, Poland, and Russia’, Journal of Comparative Economics, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 276–309.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • World Bank (1993) Uzbekistan: An Agenda for Reform (Washington, DC: World Bank).

    Google Scholar 

  • World Bank (1995) Kyrgyz Republic Economic Report (Washington, DC: World Bank).

    Google Scholar 

  • World Bank (1996) World Development Report: From Plan to Market (Washington, DC: World Bank).

    Google Scholar 

  • Yusuf, S. (1994) ‘China’s Macroeconomic Performance and Management during Transition’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 71–92.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Copyright information

© 2001 Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Denizer, C. (2001). Stabilisation, Adjustment and Growth Prospects in Transitional Economies. In: Togan, S., Balasubramanyam, V.N. (eds) Turkey and Central and Eastern European Countries in Transition. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-333-97800-9_7

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics