Skip to main content

Climate Change Scenarios in the Pantanal

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Dynamics of the Pantanal Wetland in South America

Part of the book series: The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry ((HEC,volume 37))

Abstract

The South America Pantanal is a large floodplain wetland in the center of the Upper Paraguay River Basin, which has a total area of around 360,000 km2. Large sectors of the Pantanal floodplain are submerged from 4 to 8 months each year by water depths from a few centimeters to more than 2 m. Changes in rainfall and temperature and also on land use can affect significantly the flood season with severe consequences for downstream inhabitants. However, impact of climate change on wetlands is small so far compared to the damage caused by the lack of management at the local level due to land-use change. In this chapter we assess climate and hydrology variability for the present and projections of climate change using the global climate models from the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Projections show that by the end of the century, temperatures can increase up to 7°C and rainfall can decrease in both summer and particularly winter. The possibility of longer dry spells and increased evaporation may affect the water balance in the region. However, uncertainties on climate projections are still high, particular for rainfall.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
EUR 32.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 169.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Ioris AAR, Irigaray CT, Girard P (2014) Institutional responses to climate change: opportunities and barriers for adaptation in the Pantanal and the Upper Paraguay River Basin. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1134-z

    Google Scholar 

  2. Bergier I (2013) Effects of highlands land-use over lowlands of the Brazilian Pantanal. Sci Total Environ 463–464:1060–1066

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Bergier I (2010) River level sensitivity to SOI and NAO in Pantanal and Amazonia. In III Simpósio de Geotecnologias no Pantanal, Cáceres-MT, October 2010. Embrapa Informática Agropecuária/INPE, 25–34

    Google Scholar 

  4. Marengo JA, Cornejo A, Satyamurty P, Nobre C, Sea W (1997) Cold surges in tropical and extratropical South America: the strong event in June 1994. Mon Weather Rev 125(11):2759–2781

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Marcuzzo FFN, Faria TG, Cardoso MRD, Melo DCR (2010) Chuvas no Pantanal brasileiro: análise histórica e tendência futura. Anais do 3o Simpósio de Geotecnologias no Pantanal. Cacéres, MT, p 170–180

    Google Scholar 

  6. Cardoso MRD, Marcuzzo FFN (2010) Mapeamento de três decênios da precipitação pluviométrica total e sazonal do bioma Pantanal. Anais do 3° Simpósio de Geotecnologias no Pantanal. Cáceres, MT. 84–94

    Google Scholar 

  7. Garcia N, Pedraza RA (2008) Daily rainfall variability over northeastern Argentina in the La Plata River basin. Ann N Y Acad Sci. doi:10.1196/annals. 1446.011

    Google Scholar 

  8. Alho Cleber JR, Silva JSV (2012) Effects of severe floods and droughts on wildlife of the Pantanal wetland (Brazil) – a review. Animals 2:591–610, available in: http://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/2/4/591

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  9. Clarke RT (2005) The relation between interannual storage and frequency of droughts, with particular reference to the Pantanal wetland of South America. Geophys Res Lett 32, L05402. doi:10.1029/2004GL021742

    Google Scholar 

  10. Collischonn W, Tucci CEM, Clarke RT (2001) Further evidence of changes in the hydrological regime of the river Paraguay: part of a wider phenomenon of climate change? J Hydrol 245(1–4):218–238

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Castañeda E, Barros V (1994) Las tendencias de la precipitación en el cono Sur de américa al este de los andes. Meteorol 19:23–32

    Google Scholar 

  12. Minetti J, Vargas W (1998) Trends and jumps in the annual precipitation in South America, south of the 15 S. Atmósfera 11:205–2221

    Google Scholar 

  13. Assine ML, Macedo HA, Stevaux JC, Bergier I, Padovani CR, Silva A (2015) Avulsive rivers in the hydrology of the Pantanal wetland. Hdb Environ Chem. doi:10.1007/698_2015_351

    Google Scholar 

  14. Gonçalves HC, Mercante MA, Santos ET (2011) Hydrological cycle. Braz J Biol 71(1 Suppl):241–253

    Google Scholar 

  15. Galdino S, Vieira LM, Oliveira H, Cardoso EL (2002) Impactos da agropecuária nos planaltos sobre o regime hidrológico do Pantanal. Corumbá: EMBRAPA-CPAP. 6 p.

    Google Scholar 

  16. Fantin-Cruz I, Pedrollo O, Castro NMR, Girard P, Zeilhofer P, Hamilton SK (2011) Historical reconstruction of floodplain inundation in the Pantanal (Brazil) using neural networks. J Hydrol 399(3–4):376–384

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Marengo JA, Jones R, Alves LM, Valverde MC (2009) Future change of temperature and precipitation extremes in South America as derived from the PRECIS regional climate modeling system. Int J Climatol 29(15):2241–2255

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Marengo JA, Ambrizzi T, da Rocha RP, Alves LM, Cuadra SV, Valverde MC, Torres RR, Santos DC, Ferraz SET (2010) Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models. Climate Dynam 35(6):1089–1113

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Marengo JA, Chou SC, Kay G, Alves LM, Pesquero JF, Soares WR, Santos DC, Lyra AA, Sueiro G, Betts R, Chagas DJ, Gomes JL, Bustamante JF, Tavares P (2012) Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, São Francisco and the Paraná River basins. Climate Dynam 38(9–10):1829–1848

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. PBMC (2013) Contribuição do Grupo de Trabalho 1 ao Primeiro Relatório de Avaliação Nacional do Painel Brasileiro de Mudanças Climáticas. Sumário Executivo GT1. PBMC, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, 24 p

    Google Scholar 

  21. Van Vuuren DP, Bayer LB, Chuwah C, Ganzeveld L, Hazeleger W, van den Hurk B, van Noije T, O’Neill B, Strengers BJ (2012) A comprehensive view on climate change: coupling of earth system and integrated assessment models. Environ Res Lett 7:024012. doi:10.1088/1748 9326/7/2/024012 (10 pp)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Knutti R, Seclacek JK (2013) Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nat Clim Chang 3:369–373

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Torres RR, Marengo JA (2013) Uncertainty assessments of climate change projections over South America. Theor Appl Climatol 112:253–272

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Kirtman B, Power SB, Adedoyin JA, Boer GJ, Bojariu R, Camilloni I, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Fiore AM, Kimoto M, Meehl GA, Prather M, Sarr A, Schðr C, Sutton R, van Oldenborgh GJ, Vecchi G, Wang HJ (2013) Near-term climate change: projections and predictability. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1535p. doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324

  25. Roland F, Huszar VLM, Farjalla VF, Enrich-Prast A, Amado AM, Ometto JPHB (2012) Climate change in Brazil: perspective on the biogeochemistry of inland waters. Braz J Biol 72(3 Suppl):709–722

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  26. Santos SA, Abreu UGP, Comastri Filho JA, Crispim SMA, Pellegrin AO, Tomich TR (2008) Desafios e soluções tecnológicas para a produção sustentável de gado de corte no Pantanal [< http://www.cpap.embrapa.br/publicacoes/online/DOC99.pdf] / Sandra Aparecida Santos…[et al]. – Corumbá, Embrapa Pantanal, 2008. 32 p (Documentos / Embrapa Pantanal, ISSN 1981-7223:99)

  27. Pott A, Silva JSV (2015) Terrestrial and aquatic vegetation diversity of the Pantanal wetland. Hdb Environ Chem. doi:10.1007/698_2015_352

    Google Scholar 

  28. Buller LS, Bayma-Silva G, Zanej MR, Ortega E, Moraes A, Goulart T, Bergier I (2015) Historical land-use changes in São Gabriel do Oeste at the upper Taquari river basin. Hdb Environ Chem. doi:10.1007/698_2015_355

    Google Scholar 

  29. Assine ML (2005) River avulsions on the Taquari megafan, Pantanal wetland, Brazil. Geomorphology 70(3–4):357–371

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The research leading to results shown on this publication has received funding from Rede CLIMA, the National Institute of Science and Technology (INCT) for Climate Change funded by CNPq Grant Number 573797/2008-0 and FAPESP Grant Number 57719-9, FAPESP-Assessment of Impacts and Vulnerability to Climate Change in Brazil and strategies for Adaptation Options Project, and the CNPq-IRD Project Mudanças, variabilidade e tendências do clima no passado, PResente e futuro e desastres naturais nas Regiões Tropicais e Subtropicais do BrasIl: observações e MOdelagem (PRIMO), Ref: 590172/2011-5.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jose A. Marengo .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2015 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Marengo, J.A., Oliveira, G.S., Alves, L.M. (2015). Climate Change Scenarios in the Pantanal. In: Bergier, I., Assine, M. (eds) Dynamics of the Pantanal Wetland in South America. The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry, vol 37. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/698_2015_357

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics