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Climate Change Scenarios in the Pantanal

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Dynamics of the Pantanal Wetland in South America

Part of the book series: The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry ((HEC,volume 37))

Abstract

The South America Pantanal is a large floodplain wetland in the center of the Upper Paraguay River Basin, which has a total area of around 360,000 km2. Large sectors of the Pantanal floodplain are submerged from 4 to 8 months each year by water depths from a few centimeters to more than 2 m. Changes in rainfall and temperature and also on land use can affect significantly the flood season with severe consequences for downstream inhabitants. However, impact of climate change on wetlands is small so far compared to the damage caused by the lack of management at the local level due to land-use change. In this chapter we assess climate and hydrology variability for the present and projections of climate change using the global climate models from the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Projections show that by the end of the century, temperatures can increase up to 7°C and rainfall can decrease in both summer and particularly winter. The possibility of longer dry spells and increased evaporation may affect the water balance in the region. However, uncertainties on climate projections are still high, particular for rainfall.

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Acknowledgments

The research leading to results shown on this publication has received funding from Rede CLIMA, the National Institute of Science and Technology (INCT) for Climate Change funded by CNPq Grant Number 573797/2008-0 and FAPESP Grant Number 57719-9, FAPESP-Assessment of Impacts and Vulnerability to Climate Change in Brazil and strategies for Adaptation Options Project, and the CNPq-IRD Project Mudanças, variabilidade e tendências do clima no passado, PResente e futuro e desastres naturais nas Regiões Tropicais e Subtropicais do BrasIl: observações e MOdelagem (PRIMO), Ref: 590172/2011-5.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CEMADEN, Rodovia Presidente Dutra, km 39, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, 12630-000, Brazil

    Jose A. Marengo

  2. CCST INPE, Rodovia Presidente Dutra, km 39, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, 12630-000, Brazil

    Gilvan S. Oliveira & Lincoln M. Alves

Authors
  1. Jose A. Marengo
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  2. Gilvan S. Oliveira
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  3. Lincoln M. Alves
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jose A. Marengo .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratório de Conversão de Biomassa, Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa), Corumbá, Brazil

    Ivan Bergier

  2. IGCE - Departamento de Geologia Aplicada, UNESP- Universidade Estadual Paulista, Rio Claro, São Paulo, Brazil

    Mario Luis Assine

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Marengo, J.A., Oliveira, G.S., Alves, L.M. (2015). Climate Change Scenarios in the Pantanal. In: Bergier, I., Assine, M. (eds) Dynamics of the Pantanal Wetland in South America. The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry, vol 37. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/698_2015_357

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