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Projected Future Precipitation Scenarios for a Small Island State: The Case of Mauritius

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Climate Change and Water Resources

Part of the book series: The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry ((HEC,volume 25))

Abstract

The economies of small island developing states (SIDS) can be sensitive to climate variability in the future. In this chapter, we use four of IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Global Circulation Models (GCMs) to produce precipitation projections for the next 90 years for the small island state of Mauritius. We focus our projections on the Vacoas-Phoenix region of this island because (a) this is the central region of the island, where all the major water reservoirs are located, (b) this region has normally higher precipitation and a higher variability of precipitation than the coastal regions, and (c) the rainfall in the mountainous part of this region feeds most of the rivers. Thus we expect that the groundwater recharge rate is probably more sensitive to precipitation in this region. Our results show that historically wetter months are likely to become wetter while drier months could become even drier than currently observed, but the net annual precipitation is likely to decline. This can have a significant impact on the growing tourist industry in the region which is likely to strain its water resources.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    For details on the HADGEM1 model see Refs. [1012].

  2. 2.

    For details see Refs. [13, 14].

  3. 3.

    The “EC” part of the ECHAM refers to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts while the “HAM” portion refers to the place the model was developed – Hamburg. For details of the model see Ref. [15].

  4. 4.

    For details see Ref. [17].

  5. 5.

    ARIMA methodology developed by Box and Jenkins [18].

  6. 6.

    Not shown but can be provided by the authors.

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Correspondence to Mohammed H. I. Dore .

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Dore, M.H.I., Singh, R.G. (2013). Projected Future Precipitation Scenarios for a Small Island State: The Case of Mauritius. In: Younos, T., Grady, C. (eds) Climate Change and Water Resources. The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry, vol 25. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/698_2013_221

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