Creeping Environmental Disasters: Central Asia’s Aral Seas

Abstract

The Aral Sea is dead. What does exist in its place are the Aral Seas, that is there are in essence three bodies of water, one of which is being purposefully restored and its level is rising (the Small Aral), while the other two, though marginally still connected, continue to decline in level (the Large Aral West and the Large Aral East). In 1960 the level of the sea was about 53 m above sea level. By 2006 the level had dropped by 23–30 m above sea level. This was not a scenario generated by a computer model. It was a process of environmental degradation played out in real life primarily as a result of human activities. Despite wishes and words to the contrary, it will take a heroic global effort to save what remains of the Large Aral. It would even take a significant degree of sacrifice to restore the Large Aral to a previous acceptable level, given that the annual rate of flow reaching the Amudarya River delta is less than a tenth of what it was several decades ago.