Abstract
First, we saw that Bayesian learning in causal probabilistic networks (and not only here) is twofold discontinuous and therefore may be risky. In applications we have to be aware of that and have to take precautions. Second, we should look out for situations where Bayesian learning is continuous. This will help us also to develop better procedures for the estimation of the Markov kernels of a CPN from data and expert knowledge.
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Billingsley, P.: Convergence of Probability Measures. J. Wiley and Sons: New York-London-Sidney-Toronto, 1968.
Håjek, P.; Havránek, T. Jirousèk. R.: Uncertain Information Processing in Expert Systems. CRC Press: Boca Raton-Ann Arbor-London-Tokyo: 1992.
Henrion, M.: Propagating uncertainty in Bayesian networks by probabilistic logic sampling. In: Lemmer, F.J.; Kanal, L.N. (eds.): Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 2. Elsevier Science Publishers B.V. (North-Holland): 1988.
Lauritzen, S.L.; Spiegelhalter, D.: Local Computations with Probabilities on Graphical Structures and Their Application to Expert Systems. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. B, 50 (2) (1988), 157–224.
Matthes, R.; Oppel, U.G.: Convergence of causal probabilistic networks. In: Bouchon-Meunier, B., Valverde, L.; Yager, R.R. (ed.): Intelligent Systems with Uncertainty. Elsevier: Amsterdam-London-New York-Tokio, 1993.
Neapolitan, R.E.: Probabilistic Reasoning in Expert Systems. Theory and Algorithms. J. Wiley and Sons: New York-Chichester-Brisbane-Toronto-Singapore, 1990.
Oppel, U.G.: Every Complex System Can be Determined by a Causal Probabilistic Network without Cycles and Every Such Network Determines a Markov Field. In:Kruse, R.; Siegel, P. (eds.): Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Uncertainty. Lecture Notes of Computer Science 548. Springer: Berlin-Heidelberg-New York, 1991.
Oppel, U.G.: Causal probabilistic networks and their application to metabolic processes. In: Mammitzsch, V.; Schneeweiß, H.: Proceedings of the Second Gauss Symposium, München, August 2–7, 1993. De Gruyter: Berlin, 1995.
Parthasarathy, K.: Probability Measures on Metric Spaces. Academic Press: New York-London, 1969.
Pearl, J.: Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference. Morgan Kaufmann: San Matteo, 1988.
Shachter, R.D.; Peot, M.A.: Simulation approaches to to general probabilistic belief networks. In: Henrion, M.; Shachter, R.D.; Kanal, L.N.; Lemmer, J.F. (eds.): Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 5. Elsevier Science Publishers B.V. (North-Holland): 1990.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1995 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Oppel, U.G. (1995). Two different types of discontinuity of bayesian learning in causal probabilistic networks. In: Froidevaux, C., Kohlas, J. (eds) Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning and Uncertainty. ECSQARU 1995. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 946. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-60112-0_37
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-60112-0_37
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-60112-8
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-49438-6
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive