Validating at early stages with a causal simulation tool

Conference paper
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 867)


Validating the dynamics of a conceptual model of expertise is a crucial task which is too often neglected and sometimes relegated after the implementation's phase. The motivation for this work is to capture and to simulate the dynamics of a modeled system during the early phases of design. In this paper, we present an approach and a tool based on a general and powerful simulation engine. We assume that the dynamics of a system can be viewed as a causal graph, where the nodes represent the parameters of the system and the links represent causal influences between these parameters. In a given state, the belief on the value of a parameter is an uncertain quantity represented by a probabilistic density over its domain of variation. We consider then semi-quantitative parameters and show that, using some results on discrete probabilities, we can exhibit a simulation method based on matrix calculus. We describe MORSE, a prototype based on a simple simulation algorithm, and illustrate its use on an example. Finally, we discuss the current limitations of this method and conclude about future developments of this work.


Density Vector Piecewise Constant Function Causal Influence Knowledge Engineer Causal Dependency 
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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1994

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.ACACIA projectINRIASophia-Antipolis CedexFrance

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